BIHAR: HOW MANY FOR US, ASKS JD(U)

Seat sharing for Lok Sabha 2019 is making all NDA allies in the state antsy

When they met in Patna on July 12, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar asked BJP president Amit Shah to propose a seat-sharing formula between the BJP and his JD(U) for next year’s Lok Sabha elections. The CM’s request to the BJP chief was telling, given that Shah is yet to have similar discussions with other allies—Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP)—in the state.

That Shah chose to engage with Nitish—who heads the coalition in Bihar—is understandable, but it’s made Paswan and Kushwaha, both ministers in the Narendra Modi government, perceptibly uneasy. The saffron leadership seems to have ignored them completely. In fact, the somewhat unnerved RLSP chief even suggested that, after 15 years in Bihar, it was perhaps time for Nitish to move on to a larger role (in Delhi).

While the JD(U) and BJP dismissed Kushwaha’s statement as his “personal opinion”, the RLSP boss, who has long been demanding clarity on seat sharing for the Lok Sabha polls, hasn’t bothered to clarify. Earlier, he failed to show up at an NDA dinner on June 7. Paswan, too, hasn’t been silent. The LJP gave the Modi government an ultimatum and a deadline—until August 9—to undo through an ordinance the Supreme Court order diluting the Dalit atrocity law. BJP leaders in Bihar say Paswan is posturing to get a better deal amid speculation that the saffron party could cut the LJP’s quota.

While Nitish’s return to the NDA seems to have brought a ‘problem of

plenty’, it has also freed the BJP from the tantrums of smaller allies. A senior BJP leader says Nitish is important to the party, given the challenges it faces with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and Chandrababu Naidu’s exit from the NDA.

In the two Lok Sabha polls where they were allies, the JD(U) always got the bigger share of seats. In 2004, the JD(U) contested in 24 of Bihar’s 40 seats, leaving 16 for the BJP. And in 2009, the JD(U) got 25, against just 15 for the BJP. But all that changed dramatically in 2014, when BJP won 22 seats in addition to the LJP’s six and RLSP’s three. Nitish and the JD(U) were left with just two LS seats.

But the BJP leadership is aware that 2014 was the JD(U)’s lowest ebb. Nitish has also pointed out that despite just two wins, his party polls 17 per cent of the vote. “The party can only go up from that,” Nitish told his partymen.

BJP insiders say in the new rewired alliance, the RLSP and LJP will be given fewer seats than they currently hold. It is no surprise, then, that Paswan and Kushwaha are sulking. A senior BJP leader, however, says that while a few of its incumbent MPs could be dropped, Shah is unlikely to concede any of the 22 seats held by the BJP to Nitish.

Perhaps to test the waters, a section of BJP leaders are talking of “nine constituencies for the JD(U)”, including the two it currently holds. Nitish is extremely unlikely to accept this and will insist on a minimum of 15 seats. So, besides Paswan and Kushwaha, the battle between the BJP and JD(U) is far from over.