TELANGANA: NEW ALLIANCE ARITHMETIC
The mahakutami fancies its chances against KCR, but seat distribution remains a challenge
Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao may have advanced assembly elections in Telangana in a bid to secure his comeback, but an unexpected challenge lies in his way—the mahakutami or grand alliance of opposition parties, consisting of the Congress, Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Communist Party of India (CPI) and Telangana Jana Samithi (TJS), which has come together with the aim of dislodging KCR from power.
State Congress chief N. Uttam Reddy says it’s a necessity “to end the evil and autocratic family rule of KCR, which reeks of corruption and lacks credibility”.
It’s early days but the arithmetic appears to favour the mahakutami. In the 2014 assembly elections, the Congress’s 25 per cent vote share fetched it just 21 seats while the TDP polled 14.7 per cent to win 15 seats. But together, their vote share adds up to 39.7 per cent, significantly more than the ruling TRS’s 34.3 per cent (63 seats). Add to this the votes of the CPI and TJS, which had backed the TRS in 2014. Conceding a transfer of votes in several constituencies between the alliance and TRS contestants—as some of those elected on Congress, TDP and CPI tickets in 2014 have since defected to the TRS and are in the race for re-election, Reddy says the mahakutami will still be the net gainer because of the impact of incumbency.
Analysts say that while the TRS could suffer some erosion in vote share because of anti-incumbency, the populist
WHILE KCR FACES ANTI-INCUMBENCY, THE MAHAKUTAMI MAY STRUGGLE TO FIND A CM FACE ACCEPTABLE TO ALL, SAY ANALYSTS
welfare schemes initiated by KCR should win him a significant number of new voters from among the beneficiaries. They also point out that the mahakutami could find it difficult to project a mutually acceptable chief ministerial face.
The mahakutami plans to counter this handicap by driving a ‘people versus the KCR family’ discourse during the campaign. TJS president M. Kodandaram says that besides dislodging KCR, the front will offer better governance and a common agenda that reflects the aspirations of the people of Telangana. TDP state chief L. Ramana adds, “The common agenda will be inspired by the spirit of the separate statehood campaign.”
But the real challenge will be reaching an agreement on the sharing of seats. The Congress is reluctant to surrender any ‘winnable’ constituency to its partners. The party is reportedly unwilling to concede more than 29 of the 119 assembly seats. Much now depends on the pragmatism of the Congress and the TDP and their ability to factor in the strengths of other allies.
“Alliance partners are agreed on assessing the prospects of aspirants rather than share constituencies merely according to the past electoral performances of parties,” says Reddy. “We will overcome all challenges.”