METHODOLOGY

The India Today Group-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll was conducted by Karvy Insights Limited. A total of 12,166 interviews were conducted (69 per cent rural and 31 per cent urban) across 97 parliamentary constituencies in 194 assembly constituencies in 19 states—Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. An additional 1,013 interviews were conducted in 20 parliamentary constituencies in Uttar Pradesh to analyse the most populous and pivotal state for predicting Lok Sabha 2019, taking the total sample size up to 13,179.

Different starting points were selected in each of the assembly constituencies and a fixed number of interviews conducted in each, rigorously following the right-hand rule of household selection. The fieldwork for the MOTN survey was conducted from December 28, 2018, till January 8, 2019. The survey followed a multi-stage stratified random sample design. All interviews were conducted face to face using a standard structured interview questionnaire, which was translated into regional languages. The opinion poll was conducted under the supervision of Ranjit Chib, chairman, Karvy Insights. He was assisted by Dixit Chanana, vicepresident, Karvy Insights, and Sachin Gupta.