HOPES AND FEARS

PM Modi’s achhe din remain a far cry for most Indians even as persisting caste and religious inequalities brew discontent

CONSISTENCY COUPLED WITH a balanced approach is the hallmark of any lasting initiative towards social change. While social progress has been the declared objective of successive governments, are we better off on this front than five years ago? As the latest Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll suggests, the widespread perception is of skewed growth, with only 33 per cent respondents saying that the achhe din promised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi have indeed arrived, as against the peak of 45 per cent two years ago (MOTN January 2017).

While the Swachh Bharat campaign has resonated with the people and reflects in the maintenance of public spaces, such as railway stations, the availability of clean drinking water remains a problem, though 57 per cent respondents recognise it as having improved in the past five years. However, only 38 per cent feel that availability of water for irrigation has improved.

Experts have warned that India is staring at severe drought and even a good monsoon in 2019 may not help beyond providing initial relief. If water scarcity remains the biggest worry for rural India, air quality has become a first-order issue in urban areas—45 per cent respondents say it is a matter of very serious concern. The first air pollu-

tion report of the Indian Council of Medical Research, released last year, states that one out of every eight deaths in 2017 could be attributed to air pollution.

Urban-rural faultlines are exacerbated by the feeling of inequality among religious minorities and Dalits. Only 34 per cent respondents feel the condition of religious minorities, such as Muslims, Christians, Sikhs and Parsis, has improved in the past five years. The alarming drop of 20 percentage points over the previous survey (MOTN August 2018) indicates that the narrative of inclusion is increasingly vitiated by factors such as the rise of Hindutva politics. It holds equally true for Dalits—35 per cent respondents see their condition as having improved, down 14 percentage points from the past two MOTN surveys.

Caste violence (30 per cent), cross-border terrorism (21 per cent) and communal clashes (20 per cent) are perceived as the three biggest threats to internal security. Among the other threats registering in recent surveys are violence in the name of cow protection and fake news on social media (5 per cent each). Concern over left-wing extremism is receding (3 per cent).

The threats are no longer insular, but inextricably interlinked. Caste and communal polarisation are engendering violence that threatens to spin out of control. The Supreme Court order allowing women of menstruating age to enter the Sabarimala temple in Kerala has not only underscored the constitutional guarantees of equality and freedom of religion, the verdict has also found ringing endorsement among MOTN respondents—59 per cent are of the opinion that women of all ages should be allowed into religious shrines they were traditionally barred from. Political parties, however, continue to take regressive stands, keeping elections in mind. It is this that has made the Modi government re-promulgate the ordinance banning instant triple talaq since the relevant bill could not get parliamentary approval. Seeking to allay fears that the proposed law could be misused, the government has included safeguards, such as bail for the accused before trial.

Some social reforms continue to remain taboo subjects. Same-sex marriages find acceptance only among one in four respondents. While Section 377 of the Indian Penal Code was scrapped by the Supreme Court as being out of sync with our times, the proposed bill on regulating surrogacy limits options for childless couples. Single women or men cannot opt for surrogacy and those in stable live-in relationships, gay couples and transgenders are excluded.

Technology, too, is at times way ahead of regulation. Like identity verification. In a limbo for 15 years, the DNA profiling law was cleared by the Lok Sabha on January 8. As of now, barely 3 per cent of the cases

that require DNA profiling get processed. Every year, the National Crime Records Bureau reports 40,000 unidentified bodies. About 100,000 children go missing and their identities have to be matched with their parents. Repeat offenders of rape and murder have to be apprehended. In all this, a DNA regulatory board, as proposed in the law, will advise the government on setting up DNA labs and databanks and lay down guidelines.

A potentially nettlesome issue is the introduction of 10 per cent reservation in education and employment for the economically weaker sections of the population in the open competition category. The new category of reservations will be over and above the 50 per cent cap set by the Supreme Court. Some states have already breached the limit. In Tamil Nadu, caste-based reservation is 69 per cent and applicable to about 87 per cent of the population. Telangana, which has added backward Muslims (4 per cent) to the reservations allowed to the Other Backward Classes, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, is eager to provide Muslims 12 per cent.

Regional imbalances in sharing resources based on population, inequitable development and divergence are on the rise as demographic trends reveal that the head count in northern and eastern states has grown relative to those in the south. A looming threat in the future springs from the statewise allocation of seats in the Lok Sabha. The average Lok Sabha constituency in Bihar has 2.6 million citizens and Madhya Pradesh 2.5 million, compared with 1.84 million in Tamil Nadu and 1.65 million in Kerala. In the run-up to the next review of statewise seat allocation in 2026, if the citizen per state ratio is sought to be equalised—there is already a clamour in the two Telugu-speaking states for enhancing seats in the legislative assemblies—the already complex social mosaic will see fresh flare-ups. Achhe din can no longer be the metaphor for the changing times.