Kashmir’s Economic Decline

The evidence of the government’s own numbers suggests terrorism has risen substantially in Kashmir since 2014. Correspondingly, unemployment is higher than the average in the rest of India. Tourism numbers have fallen off the cliff. The BJP was part of the state government in Jammu and Kashmir for the first time in 2015. Predictably, its oddcouple alliance with the PDP, led by Mehbooba Mufti, collapsed in June. Will more economic growth and development stem the apparently increased radicalisation of young people in Kashmir? The signs are that economic activity must be accompanied by an openness to dialogue. Whether there is much appetite in the central government for talks rather than demonstrations of authority remains open to question.

614

Terrorist incidents in Kashmir in 2018 alone, compared to 222 in 2014, says the government; 257 militants were killed in 2018, 110 in 2014

398

Militants entered Kashmir between 2016 and 2018, says Hansraj Ahir, MoS for home affairs; 686 militants killed in the same period and 56 arrested

24.6%

Unemployment in Kashmir (ages 18-29), compared to national average of 13.2% (2016 Economic Survey)

130

Working days lost from July 2016 to June 2017 due to strikes and curfews; estimated cost: Rs 13,261 crore

8.2%

Growth in Kashmir’s nominal GSDP in FY17; Nominal GSDP (FY19 estimate) of $25 billion ranks it 21/33 among states and UTs

850,000

Foreign/ domestic tourist visitors in 2018—a 23% decline from 2017 and lowest in seven years

`80,000 cr

Package announced by PM Narendra Modi for flood relief, infrastructural development and boosts to health and tourism