NO LOK SABHA YET FOR HIMANTA
On March 15, Assam BJP president Ranjeet Kumar Dass publicly announced that the party’s central leadership had decided to field Assam finance minister Himanta Biswa Sarma in the Lok Sabha election and he could fight from a constituency of his choosing. “I told the central leadership that he should contest from Assam only,” Dass said. Sarma, who is also the convenor of the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), an umbrella organisation of non-Congress parties in the Northeast, has publicly expressed his desire several times to contest the general election. The Tezpur constituency had even been earmarked for him, a seat veteran BJP leader R.P. Sharma won in 2014. On March 16, Sharma quit the BJP when he found the party’s state selection committee had not sent his name as one of the proposed candidates. In fact, the list had only one name from Tezpur—Sarma’s.
However, on the intervening night of March 16-17, Prime Minister Narendra Modi summoned Sarma to the BJP headquarters in Delhi and told him: “I think you have more to do in the Northeast and shouldn’t contest the Lok Sabha election.” Party sources say it was BJP national president Amit Shah who had assured Sarma of a ticket, though Dass on March 18 claimed he was told by national general secretary and Northeast in-charge Ram Madhav that the party wanted Sarma to contest.
Whether it was Shah or Madhav, Modi’s decision has shocked political observers. Sarma, a former Congressman, joined the BJP after
the then vice-president Rahul Gandhi declined to make him the CM despite written support from 55 out of 78 MLAs. “The party may genuinely need him in bigger roles but the way the events around his candidature unfolded is intriguing. What happens next will depend on the BJP’s alternative plan for him. He won’t revolt like he did in the Congress but we’ll certainly see a mellower Sarma in the campaign, not one who can reverse situations,” says Nani Gopal Mahanta, a political science professor at Gauhati University.
After joining the BJP in 2015, Sarma has widely been recognised as the chief architect of the BJP’s spread
Sources claim Sarma was denied a ticket because the BJP needed his expertise in poll preparations
in the Northeast. Recently, when the BJP was pushing for the Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB), 2016, which evoked widespread protest in the Northeast, Sarma was the most vocal in his support. He has assured the party high command of delivering at least 15 seats from the eight Northeastern states—7 more than 2014— despite the bill protests.
Modi and Shah have asked Sarma to monitor the campaign in all the states, which together account for 25 LS seats. Although Sarma has been denied a ticket, the leadership has accepted all the candidates he suggested for the Lok Sabha seats in the region and the assembly seats in Arunachal Pradesh.
While party insiders wonder if a demoralised Sarma will be detrimental to the BJP’s prospects in the Northeast, sources close to Shah claim he was denied a ticket precisely because the party did not want any lapse in poll preparations. “His expertise will be required to expand our Northeast tally. If he focuses on one constituency, it will hamper our campaign in other states,” says a party national secretary.
Despite Sarma’s assertions that the BJP will win over 20 seats in the Northeast and Madhav’s assurance of putting up a joint fight with allies despite conflicts over the CAB, the cracks in NEDA are evident. Though BJP ally Asom Gana Parishad has returned to the NDA fold, it will be challenging for the parties to work together.
The biggest blow to the BJP came when six allies in seven states announced their own candidates for the LS poll without consulting the BJP. Meghalaya CM Conrad Sangma announced candidates from two constituencies in the state and his National People’s Party is all set to contest from six other states. The Mizo National Front, Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura and Naga People’s Front in Manipur have also fielded their own candidates. This is exactly what Sarma will be firefighting, instead of fighting the election.
—Kaushik Deka