UNEASY LIES THE HEAD...
UDDHAV THACKERAY MAY SETTLE FOR PLUM PORTFOLIOS, BUT A DEMANDING SHIV SENA IS NOT FADNAVIS’S ONLY HEADACHE IN HIS SECOND TERM
The Shiv Sena might have won seven seats less than it did in 2014, but Uddhav Thackeray isn’t complaining. The BJP’s tally of 105 seats, 40 short of a simple majority in the 288-member Maharashtra assembly, has put him in a position to pay back the BJP for the raw treatment he received at its hands over the past five years.
The first thing the Sena supremo did after the assembly poll result came in on October 23 was to announce that his party would not form the government with the BJP till the latter finalised the power-sharing formula. He insisted that BJP president and home minister Amit Shah had promised the Sena an equal share of power. Sena leaders, including Thackeray’s close confidant Anil Desai, have laboured the point that an equal share means that the allies should both have equal time (two-and-a-half years) in the chief minister’s chair.
The BJP, however, is likely to keep the CM’s post. The Sena will instead likely settle for important portfolios such as revenue, excise and the public works department. Thackeray has also demanded two additional berths for his party in the Union cabinet. The BJP has already agreed to spare two seats for the Sena in the legislative council, but Thackeray wants two additional seats as well as the post of Governor for his party.
There are two theories suggesting why Thackeray will settle for plum portfolios. First, to become chief minister, he will need the backing of the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). As a top Sena leader puts it, Thackeray is unlikely to go with the Congress as it could hamper the party’s fortunes. He had turned down a similar proposal for a Sena-Congress-NCP combine in 2016, suggested by NCP leader Ajit Pawar. “Uddhavji is hurt because of the subordinate treatment by the BJP,” says a Sena leader. “That does not mean he will join hands with the Congress, which is against Hindutva. He expects respect from the BJP and has got an opportunity now to earn it.” He also says the central government will not allow Thackeray to run the state smoothly should he separate from the BJP. “He will certainly not like to carry the tag of a failure and create hurdles in the path of Aaditya’s political journey.”
Political analyst Hemant Desai believes Thackeray’s intent is to make the Sena stronger, not to get confrontational with the BJP. “He will settle for some important portfolios,” says Desai. “He can’t bank on anyone to run the government. I don’t think he will allow his son Aaditya to become deputy CM as he would first like him to learn the ropes of administration.”
Whatever the outcome of the BJPSena talks, their relations are unlikely to be cordial in the future, political observers believe. For one, the Sena’s ministers will not remain passive in cabinet meetings this term. Thackeray will also insist on the completion of his dream projects, be it the coastal road in Mumbai, financial assistance to farmers or the revival of night life in Mumbai.
Devendra Fadnavis, meanwhile, hopes he will be chief minister for five years. On October 29, he said the BJP had not agreed to any power-sharing formula. “We will form the government soon,” he said. “The formula will surprise you.” The BJP high command is likely to accede to some of Thackeray’s demands, but will also press Fadnavis to not yield too much.
A section of the BJP is already starting to express doubts about Fadnavis’s political manoeuvres. After all, the party suffered maximum losses in the chief minister’s home ground, Vidarbha. “We lost seven seats here as the Teli community was upset their leader Chandrashekhar Bawankule was denied a ticket,” says a BJP leader. Fadnavis was unable to convince Shah about Bawankule’s candidature. It cost both the party and his reputation dear.
“We lost another 10 seats because Nitinji (Gadkari) was kept away from the poll,” says the BJP leader. Indeed, 41 of the 44 BJP MLAs in Vidarbha who were considered close to Gadkari found themselves in a lurch as the Union transport minister could not campaign for them.
Fadnavis is also likely to face trouble on account of state BJP president Chandrakant Patil. Patil’s attitude while dealing with floods in the Pune, Satara, Sangli and Kolhapur districts resulted in a 28-seat win for the NCP in western Maharashtra, putting paid to the BJP’s ambition of securing power on its own. Patil’s October 27 statement—“The world can behave but not Kolhapur”— only added fuel to the fire. And this is only one fire Fadnavis has to douse.