CORONAVIRUS: SHOULD WE WORRY?
The pictures look like stills from a Hollywood movie—haunted-looking people in airports, surgical masks clamped to their faces, flimsy shields against the latest virus that threatens the world. The epicentre may be Wuhan, in China, where the virus was identified in early December, but cases of the deadly Coronavirus have been reported in over a dozen countries across the world, from Australia to the US, to Germany and Sri Lanka. In China, as of January 28, there have been 106 confirmed deaths. The virus, according to Chinese scientists, likely originates from bats with over a decade’s worth of research showing that Coronaviruses in bats can cause human pandemics with unusual alacrity. This novel (as in new) Coronavirus, some scientists argue, might be even more dangerous to humans than others such as SARS, the viral respiratory disease that caused hundreds of deaths around the world in eight or so
months from 2002 to 2003.
In India, three people were kept under observation in a Delhi hospital for possibly contracting the Coronavirus. The superintendent at the Delhi hospital told reporters that the men under observation had respiratory problems and had contracted coughs, colds and fevers. Other patients in hospitals from Jaipur to Kerala have also been kept under observation. A single case in neighbouring Nepal was reported on January 24. Government authorities say they are being vigilant, running thousands of checks on travellers from the many countries in which people have been affected by Coronaviruses, but some experts have called into question the preparedness of the country’s medical system to deal with any extensive outbreak.
Many have been critical of the Chinese government’s response, which has veered from lackadaisical in December, when it claimed the Coronavirus was not being spread through people to people contact, to panicked now as it has effectively put tens of millions of people in quarantine. A few hundred Indians, mostly medical students, are currently in Wuhan. According to a tweet by ministry of external affairs spokesperson Raveesh Kumar, a plan is being put together to evacuate Indian nationals, though a waiting Air India passenger jet had, at the time of writing, yet to be dispatched. Other countries, including Japan and the US, have also made plans to evacuate their nationals. Any ‘rescue’ plan, though, needs to be sanctioned by Chinese authorities, since Wuhan has been sealed off from the rest of the country. On January 27, a man died in Beijing, the first fatality in the Chinese capital.
In response to the Coronavirus, many countries have recommended that their nationals not travel to China. The health ministry has recommended that non-essential travel to China be postponed and that Indians in China should “follow simple public
India is uniquely vulnerable to the Coronavirus, with people to people contact across international borders facilitating the contagion
health measures”, including frequent hand-washing and covering their mouths when coughing. Despite fears expressed about Indian preparedness, the authorities in various states insist they are taking necessary precautions. Union health minister Harsh Vardhan pointed out that despite scares and some hundreds of patients being tested and observed, there had still not been any report of a verified case of the Coronavirus in India.
This may be premature, given the rate at which countries around the world are reporting incidences. Nonetheless, the death toll has, so far, been confined to China, with the fatality rate remaining steady at less than three per cent. The Centre has also set up a 24-hour helpline, and has been thermal screening passengers at select airports. But the government admits it is also reliant on people—particularly those who have travelled to China— monitoring symptoms that are quite broad and can easily be mistaken for a regular cold, cough or respiratory illness, not uncommon in India, particularly in the pollution-ridden cities of the north. The advice given by authorities such as the National Disaster Management Authority has been broad and bland, encouraging good personal hygiene and attention to diet, exercise and sleep patterns.
Such advice is evidence that the authorities do not yet fully understand the novel Coronavirus. Work on a vaccine has begun, with the hope that experience gained in dealing with SARS will hasten the process. Even in a bestcase scenario, though, any putative vaccine would take months to develop. As of now, the World Health Organization has stopped short of describing the Coronavirus as an international public health emergency, though it acknowledged that its previous assessment of the risk posed internationally was understated. Google trends have shown that while international interest in the Coronavirus has led to much internet browsing, people in Australia, Canada, India and the US, in particular, have been confusing or associating the virus with Corona beer, with searches for ‘Coronavirus beer’, ‘Corona virus beer’, and ‘Virus Corona beer’ spiking spectacularly over the past couple of weeks.
Perhaps, a weak smile is still the only appropriate response to worldwide apprehension. Alarmingly, a new global health security index, released in October 2019, suggested that “not a single country in the world is fully prepared to handle an epidemic or pandemic”. India scored above the global average, although not as highly as developed economies, and still its score was only 46.5 out of a possible 100. We are, the Chinese experience has shown, uniquely vulnerable to the Coronavirus, with people to people contact across international borders facilitating the contagion. As China is finding out, quarantining a country is nigh on impossible. ■
Work on a vaccine for the Coronavirus has begun, but, even in a bestcase scenario, any putative vaccine would take months to develop