MUMBAI’S BATTLE WITH COVID

The 6,355 sq. km area has recorded a 300 per cent rise in Covid cases in a month. And, alarmingly, the worst is yet to come

On July 5, Covid-positive cases in Maharashtra crossed the 200,000 mark. The numbers had doubled in one month since the state began opening up on June 3, a few days ahead of the Union government’s announcement to Unlock on June 8. Almost 60 per cent of the cases and 72 per cent of the 9,250 deaths in the state till July 7 were reported from the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), which makes up 25 per cent of the state’s 120 million population. This region has seen an almost 300 per cent rise in cases.

With nine municipal corporations—Mumbai, Thane, Navi Mumbai, Kalyan-Dombivli, Mira-Bhayandar, Ulhasnagar, Bhiwandi-Nizampur, Vasai-Virar and Panvel—and nine municipal councils, the MMR is the biggest urban agglomeration in Maharashtra. Spread over 6,355 sq. km, it is also the largest hub of service industries, which account for 30 per cent of the GSDP (gross state domestic product) of Rs 32.5 lakh crore (approx. $450 billion). MMR is often dubbed the dormitory of Mumbai, as around 7 million people commute every day from here to the city.

State health department statistics show that, since June 3, the number of positive cases have grown by 166 per cent in Thane, 469 per cent in Kalyan-Dombivli, 413 per cent in Mira-Bhayandar, 1,470 per cent in Bhiwandi-Nizampur, 364 per cent in Panvel, 190 per cent in Navi Mumbai, 130 per cent in Ulhasnagar and 200 per cent in Vasai-Virar—much higher than Mumbai’s 94 per cent. With around 26,000 active cases, Thane tops the chart.

The Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi government has focused primarily on Mumbai—in mid-May, it started beefing up healthcare facilities in the city, but, in the process, seems to have neglected the satellite towns. They are still struggling to get test reports, ambulances and hospital beds on time. In Thane, a 25-year-old man was refused admission by four hospitals in the absence of a Covid test report. He was tested on July 1, but his symptoms worsened before he could get the results. He died on July 4 in the rickshaw ferrying him to the various hospitals.

At the onset of the Unlock phase, which he styled as ‘Mission Begin Again’, Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray permitted activities like jogging, opening of all shops and scrapped the need for a pass to travel within the MMR. Soon enough, there was chaos. Fidgety people, cooped up for months in cramped living spaces, came out in droves, thronged areas like Marine

Drive, for a walk and breath of fresh air, but paid no heed to physical distancing norms. Civic bodies remained mute spectators. With schools holding classes online, shops of electronic goods witnessed an unusual surge in the number of visitors. It was to be expected that there would be super-spreaders among the people who were now moving freely.

According to the data recorded by the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, the state’s decision to allow domestic help, a lot of whom live in hotspot areas, to return to work, also contributed to the spike in the number of cases in residential complexes. A housing society in Churchgate, and another at Nepean Sea Road allegedly saw about 70 new cases each in a day after lifting restrictions on visitors, including domestic workers. The state government began local train services for essential workers from the MMR areas till the Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus and Churchgate stations in June, but this move, too, had similar consequences—the free movement of people meant the virus travelled to the inner reaches of the MMR and spread widely. According to a report by the state health department, these commuters comprise 40 per cent of the cases recorded in MMR satellite towns.

The state government’s response to the rise in cases has, so far, been timid. Health minister Rajesh Tope admits that the local civic officials failed to effectively trace, track, test and treat. As a likely consequence of this failure, the municipal commissioners of Thane, Mira-Bhayandar, Ulhasnagar and Bhiwandi-Nizampur were recently replaced. On July 1, the new commissioners imposed a strict two-week lockdown in seven of the nine towns, as per the state government’s advice, banning all movement of people except for medical purposes. Additional chief secretary Sitaram Kunte, in charge of the MMR for Covid, says the move will help control the situation. “The BMC is building giant Covid facilities on its periphery. These could be used for people from the

The state government, in focusing on Mumbai, took its eyes off the crisis that was building up in the larger metropolitan region, the MMR

MMR.” Thackeray virtually inaugurated a 3,520-bed facility on July 7.

According to Tope, the surge was inevitable after the lockdown was lifted. “I guess the number of cases will rise further till end July .... Our focus is on limiting fatalities.” At present, Maharashtra’s fatality rate is 4.7 per cent, above the national average of 3 per cent. Shiv Sena spokesperson Manisha Kayande echoes Tope: “This was expected, but the government is working towards containing the virus.”

Maharashtra has launched antigen and antibody testing and is planning to float a tender to purchase Remdesivir, which is in short supply. It has also dedicated 23 centres across the state as plasma banks for the treatment of critical patients. However, none of this has spared Thackeray the ire of not just the opposition, but also partners in government, the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

Revenue minister Balasaheb Thorat, also state Congress president, expressed his displeasure over the re-imposed lockdown. NCP chief Sharad Pawar, on July 4, reportedly warned Thackeray against not taking his ministers into confidence. Leader of opposition Devendra Fadnavis has alleged that the government is underutilising testing facilities. According to him, Mumbai is averaging only 4,000 tests a day, not 25,000, as Tope claims. “The rate of infection in Mumbai is 28 per cent, contrary to the government’s claim of 18 per cent,” says Fadnavis. The national rate of infection is 6.39 per cent.

Dr S.S. Santosh Kumar, who led a team of doctors and nurses from Kerala to Mumbai to help the city doctors cope with the pandemic, estimates Mumbai city alone will require 3,750 ICU beds in addition to its present number of 3,000. “Severe cases from MMR are pouring into Mumbai, so the mortality rate here is rising. Increasing ICU facilities is the need of the hour,” says Dr Kumar.

If this weren’t worrying enough, Thackeray has approved the reopening of hotels and guest houses with 33 per cent occupancy. The government finds itself caught between a rock and a hard place—unlock the economy it must, even at the risk of dire consequences for the health of its citizens. ■