MP: TWO BJP LEADERS AND AN ELECTION
Two years is a long time in politics and so in Madhya Pradesh two personalities, pitted against each other in the 2018 assembly election, now find themselves working together. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and the BJP back then had Jyotiraditya Scindia firmly in their crosshairs; indeed, the BJP campaign in 2018 revolved around Scindia’s princely legacy (read: arrogant) versus Chouhan’s kisan putra (read: downtoearth) image. ‘Maaf karo maharaj, hamare neta Shivraj’ was the BJP’s campaign couplet then, but today the ‘Maharaj’ and ‘Mama’ are twin faces of the BJP campaign for byelections in 28 assembly segments. How does the BJP plan to bring these two contrasting political personalities together on the election stage? More importantly, what will a decisive win/ loss for the BJP signal for Scindia and Chouhan?
The dates haven’t been announced yet, but both the BJP and the Congress are gearing for a November battle coinciding with the Bihar election. Of the 28 seats, 25 were with the Congress, before these MLAs defected to the BJP, along with Scindia; three seats were vacated on the demise of the incumbents. The GwaliorChambal region accounts for 16 seats, and the BJP strategy here is to nullify the opposition campaign on the motives behind the defections. There is talk of substantial sums of money changing hands; a figure is also in circulation and the electorate has latched on to it. Net result: the voters are fully expecting to be courted by these leaders. The fact that 14 of the turncoat MLAs were made ministers also establishes a quid pro quo. “The BJP is claiming the MLAs resigned because the 15month Congress government only focused on Chhindwara, exchief minister Kamal Nath’s area, and that other regions of the state were ignored,” says political analyst Girija Shankar. “To drive home the point, Chouhan and Scindia
have also announced a huge number of development works in the constituencies going to the polls. The message is that the BJP will rectify the wrongs of the Congress,” he says.
Scindia, Chouhan and Union agriculture minister Narendra Singh Tomar did a whirlwind tour of constituencies in Shivpuri, Bhind, Morena, Datia, Gwalior and Ashok Nagar districts between September 10 and 13, announcing the new projects. It included a Rs 160 crore dam in Mehgaon in Bhind district, numerous PMGSY (Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana) roads, a Rs 8,000 crore, 450 km Chambal Expressway (now rechristened the Atal Progressway), a Sainik School in Bhind, and an air cargo hub in Dabra, Gwalior. More than 100 big and small projects were announced.
CM Chouhan has also announced that the state government will commemorate Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 70th birthday on September 17 as ‘Gareeb Kalyan Pakhwada’. The day will be used to release pending payouts to important political groups, among them certificates to tribals under the Forest Rights Act (FRA), Rs 10,000 interestfree loans to street vendors, money for laptops to students, PM Kisan Yojana dues, and handouts to Chouhan’s Sambal Scheme beneficiaries. During the week, 3.7 million new beneficiaries will be added as BPL ration card holders, 175,000 new houses handed over to beneficiaries under the PMAYG (Pradhan Mantri Awas YojanaGramin), and milk will be introduced in the diet at anganwadis. An estimated Rs 4,650 crore is also being released to farmers as insurance payment for crop damages in 2019.
Mercifully, the BJP’s campaign, at least till now, has refrained from any attempts at polarising the electorate, focusing solely on development even though a section of the party is keen to make the most of the Ayodhya Ram temple ‘victory’. A part of the reason for not doing so could be Scindia’s presence and that the GwaliorChambal region, unlike Malwa, may not respond well to religious issues.
In GwaliorChambal, caste will be a major factor. While the BJP has little choice in candidate selection—all 25 defectors were promised tickets as part of the deal—the Congress has space to manoeuvre on the caste front. There is, however, talk about the BJP cadre being asked to support rebel candidates in constituencies where the official party candidate is sure to lose. This move is fraught with risk as it could antagonise Scindia. Political watchers say the BJP may eventually decide against this to avoid complications. To counter this ‘disadvantage’, the BJP plans to grant tickets on caste lines in Joura and Agar constituencies, two of the seats that fell vacant on the demise of incumbent MLAs.
The party organisation has been told that voting percentages will be key to ensuring victory. The Sangh will be pressed into service to ensure this. The appointment of RSS man Hitanand Sharma as BJP joint organisational secretary, replacing Atul Rai, should help. Sharma has worked in Guna and Shivpuri and his experience will come in handy. The BJP organisation is also trying to get PM Modi onboard, and though he does not campaign in byelections, there is talk that he may agree since 28 seats are involved.
Last week, BJP national general secretary (organisation) B.L. Santhosh visited Bhopal and is learnt to have told the ministers who have been given charge of constituencies that they would lose their cabinet positions if the party lost in these seats. There are also issues at the ground level, especially in coordination between the original BJP workers and the new entrants. The ‘BJPification’ of the Congress leaders and workers isn’t complete yet. At many public meetings in the GwaliorChambal region, leaders who owe their allegiance to Scindia still address him as their chief, with no particular deference to the BJP. This is not quite the culture of the BJP, where all the talk is about putting the party ahead of the individual.
The party also faces rebellion within its ranks. Veteran BJP leaders such as Jaibhan Singh Pawaiya, Deepak Joshi, Gauri Shankar Shejwar and others have had to sit out this election as the party tickets have been given to the new arrivals. Many BJP insiders are upset at the way their leaders were left out of the cabinet expansion, in which 14 exCongress MLAs were accommodated. While organisational channels have helped keep the rebels fairly quiet, some like Satish Sikarwar (the BJP candidate from Gwalior East segment in 2018) have joined the Congress. “An open rebellion is unlikely given that the BJP is in power in the state and the Centre, but there is bound to be some sabotage,” says a BJP leader on condition of anonymity.
Success in the bypolls would prove that Chouhan and Scindia’s popularity is intact. It will also be a ratification of Scindia’s move to make the 25 Congress MLAs resign. Conversely, an adverse outcome could have consequences for both leaders. For one, there are other contenders for the job of MP chief minister. The antiChouhan group would use an average poll performance as a reason to demand a change in leadership. If the BJP manages to retain power, but only just about, that too will reflect in the cabinet. The Scindiaheavy ministry will, then, have to be rejigged to accommodate original BJP leaders. There is also his induction into the Union cabinet to consider. Many in the BJP believe Scindia could be a challenger for Chouhan, but that is for the future. Till the outcome of the byelections, their futures are interlinked.
The ‘BJP-fication’ of ex-Congressmen is not complete. At public meetings in GwaliorChambal, leaders who owe their allegiance to Scindia still address him as chief; no particular regard for the party is on display