THE BATTLE OF ALLIANCES
The NDA goes into the Bihar election as the clear favourite, buoyed by Nitish’s credibility and thanks to the disarray in an RJD-(mis)led opposition. But it needs to quickly iron out differences among its two main constituents over seat distribution
On September 10, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi digitally launched the Rs 20,050 crore Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana, a central government scheme to boost production and exports in the fisheries sector, he began his address in Bhojpuri—“Rauaa sabe ke pranam ba (Pranam to all of you)”. Minutes into his address, Modi picked “Nitish babu” for special praise, lauding, among other achievements, the Bihar chief minister’s success in bringing piped water to nearly 70 per cent of homes in the state. On September 13, while inaugurating three petroleum projects in Bihar, Modi endorsed Nitish again and said that his 15year rule had shown how development could be fasttracked by adopting the right governance model.
These were official programmes, but Modi’s efforts to connect with pollbound Bihar and hardsell old ally Nitish were more than obvious. Five years ago, the Bihar assembly election scene was altogether different. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had then run a determined campaign, led by the prime minister himself, against the grand alliance of Nitish’s Janata Dal (United) or JD(U), the
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress—and failed. The BJP had contested 157 of the total 243 assembly seats—drawing over 9.3 million votes, the highest among all parties in that election—but could win only 53. The other three constituents added just five seats to the NDA tally.
Much has changed since then. Nitish is back in the NDA fold, since August 2017, and is seeking a fourth term in office with the help of the very party that had unsuccessfully challenged him in 2015. The last time the BJP and the JD(U) contested Bihar assembly elections together was in 2010, gliding to power with a tally of 206 seats between them.
The current term of the legislative assembly ends on November 29 and Bihar’s parties and alliances are in poll gear. BJP national president J.P. Nadda met Nitish in Patna on September 12 amid speculation about seat distribution within the NDA. The other two NDA constituents, Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and new entrant Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) of former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, were not part of the meeting. For the Lok Sabha election last year, then BJP chief Amit Shah and Nitish had met as early as in October 2018 and declared that their parties would contest an equal number of seats.
THE POWER OF TWO
While the BJP and JD(U) are tightlipped about their seat distribution parleys, Nadda has reiterated that the NDA will contest the election under the leadership of Nitish and aim for a two-thirds majority. Going by past elections in Bihar, the BJP and the JD(U) are a formidable force when contesting together. This broadly attests Bihar deputy chief minister Sushil Modi’s view that whenever two of the state’s three main parties form a poll alliance, it is hard to beat. “Ever since the hung assembly verdict in February 2005, Bihar’s voters have been delivering decisive mandates in both assembly and Lok Sabha elections—in favour of Nitish Kumar for the assembly and Narendra Modi for the Lok Sabha,” says a senior JD(U) leader.
Between October 2005 and May 2019, Bihar witnessed three assembly and three parliamentary elections. In these six contests, the BJP and the JD(U) were in alliance on four occasions—the 2005 and 2010 assembly and 2009 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections—and notched convincing victories each time. Nitish emerged winner in all the three assembly elections during this period whereas the NDA swept Bihar in two of the three Lok Sabha polls.
In 2009, even when Modi was not on the national political scene and the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) won the Lok Sabha election and returned to power, the JD(U)-BJP combine had won 32 of the 40 seats, with a 13 percentage point higher vote share than the RJD-LJP alliance. The NDA maintained the vote-share lead in the 2010 assembly election as well—39.1 per cent against the UPA’s 25.6 per cent. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, which the BJP and JD(U) contested along with the LJP, the NDA had a 23 percentage point higher vote share than the grand alliance.
In the 2015 assembly election, when the JD(U) and the RJD joined hands along with the Congress, the grand alliance vote share was 7.75 percentage points higher than the NDA’s. The JD(U), RJD and the Congress together bagged 178 seats against the NDA’s 58, which included two seats each of the LJP and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) and one of HAM (Secular). No wonder, both the JD(U) and the BJP will walk the extra mile to be in each other’s company in Bihar.
TUSSLE FOR SEATS
The NDA’s immediate priority will be to arrive at an amicable distribution of seats among the constituents. In the 2010 assembly election, the JD(U) had fielded 141 candidates and the BJP 102. In the 2019 general election, the two parties contested 17 seats each. With the BJP winning all 17 seats and the JD(U) one less, the two parties are arguably on an even keel. As negotiations proceed, some in the state BJP feel their party deserves a bigger share of seats than in 2010. But as a JD(U) leader says: “Assembly polls are all about electing a chief minister.” This is where Nitish’s party believes it holds the trump card.
Some state BJP leaders claim their party had agreed to contest just 17 Lok Sabha constituencies in 2019 despite having 22 sitting MPs since the JD(U) wished to fight from at least 17 seats. They argue that the BJP and the JD(U) should be contesting an equal number of assembly seats as Nitish’s party had a similar arrangement with the RJD in the 2015 poll.
The BJP is reportedly seeking 100 assembly seats each for itself and the JD(U), with the remaining 43 distributed between the LJP and HAM (Secular). A senior JD(U) leader, however, rejected the proposal, saying: “Our 2015 arrangement with the RJD cannot be replicated with the BJP this time for various reasons. For one, the RJD is a regional party whereas the BJP is a national political entity. Second, in the grand alliance set-up, we had trust over our third constituent, the Congress. We cannot say the same for the LJP.”
Relations between the JD(U) and the LJP have been frosty, of late. At one point, the LJP had even threatened to field candidates against the JD(U) in the forthcoming election and the latter had retorted that the two parties were no longer in an alliance.
LJP chief Chirag Paswan is said to be miffed over PM Modi’s recent praise of Nitish. While Chirag has said his party will stand by “whatever decision the BJP takes”, the JD(U) has little trust in him. The party is also wary of a situation where the LJP wins a sizeable number of seats and begins to assert itself during government formation.
OPPOSITION IN A MUDDLE
To the NDA’s advantage, the RJD-led opposition is perceived to be in a shambles. RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav is in judicial custody in Ranchi following his conviction in fodder scam cases. His son Tejashwi Yadav, who is leading the party, is no match for his father’s rallying influence. With 80 seats, the RJD is the largest entity in the current Bihar assembly.
The opposition alliance has not only lost Manjhi’s party, it is also grappling with demanding allies, such as Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP and Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP). The RJD is keen on a rainbow alliance that not only gives it traction among castes like the Kushwaha and Sahni but also attracts Left votes. Tejashwi, though, faces the difficult task of accommodating Left parties like the CPI, CPI(M) and CPI(M-L) and balancing it with the aspirations of old allies, such as the Congress. The RJD also realises that packing the alliance Tejashwi Yadav is hardselling a vision of a ‘new Bihar’. With 24 per cent of the electorate under 30 years, he has been raising the issue of lack of jobs
with so many constituents may ultimately bring down its own share of seats. While the allies have their own ambitious demands, the RJD is unwilling to settle for anything less than 145150 seats to contest in the election.
For the RJD, the biggest challenge perhaps is to rid itself of the baggage of the past, including widespread corruption charges against its first family. Nitish’s parting of ways with the RJD in 2017, which brought down the grand alliance government in Bihar, had come in the aftermath of fresh corruption charges against Lalu and Tejashwi.
Tejashwi has been trying hard to change the perception of his party from the time it was led by Lalu and Rabri Devi. In July, he unconditionally apologised to the people of Bihar for the ‘mistakes’ committed by the RJD government during its 15-year rule in the state, at the same time crediting his father with ushering in social justice. RJD sources say Tejashwi is
trying to build a vision of a ‘new Bihar’ and projecting himself as a youth icon. Incidentally, almost 24 per cent of Bihar’s registered electorate is below 30 years. It perhaps explains why Tejashwi has been raising the issue of unemployment in the state.
To Tejashwi’s discomfiture, the NDA is projecting brand Nitish and 15 years of Bihar’s progress under the chief minister, and comparing it with the perceived 15-year misrule of the RJD. Tejashwi also has his hands full battling turmoil within the RJD. While there has been no formal announcement, word is out that his elder brother Tej Pratap Yadav has made up his mind to change his assembly constituency from Mahua to Hasanpur in Samastipur district. This is reportedly prompted by speculation that Tej Pratap’s estranged wife Aishwarya may contest against him from Mahua. This has not exactly been the confidence-building step that party supporters were hoping for.
The death of RJD veteran Raghuvansh Prasad Singh on September 13 will also impact the RJD’s bid to gain ground among the upper castes. Though a socialist leader, Singh had emerged as a symbol of Rajput pride, and the JD(U) is doing everything to beat the RJD in the game of claiming his legacy. What may have gone against the RJD is that Tej Pratap had, in the past, reacted to speculation about Singh leaving the party by remarking that it would have no impact on a “vast ocean like the RJD”. Though he retracted the comment and described Singh as his “chacha”, the damage was done.
The bottomline is that while the RJD may want the electorate to buy what Tejashwi is promising to deliver in the future, the JD(U) and the BJP are going all out to remind the people of Bihar of the RJD’s past. In between lies present-day Bihar, with one of the two time-periods set to become the deciding factor in the upcoming election.