THE REIGN OF HINDUTVA
Narendra Modi retains the people’s confidence and their vote despite Covid, negative economic growth and Chinese aggression. His party’s right-wing agenda is also finding increasing public support
Despite the multiple crises before him, Prime Minister Narendra Modi retains his popularity. India’s rightward shift also becomes more pronounced
There are years when a single crisis can engulf a nation and push it to the brink of collapse. But seldom does a nation confront a whole constellation of damaging crises in one year as India did in 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic wreaked havoc not only on our lives but also on our livelihoods, leaving the Indian economy in tatters. The massive Chinese aggression on our borders—not seen for decades— threatened the nation’s territorial integrity. And the farmers’ agitation—a self-goal by the central government—has gone on unabated for almost two months now.
Given the pressing emergencies before the country, any leader would have found his and his government’s popularity dipping drastically. In the United States, Donald Trump failed to get re-elected partly because of the perception that his apathetic handling of the pandemic led to America registering the highest number of Covid-19 cases and casualties. With over 10 million cases, India stands second in the world in the number of people afflicted with Covid while its death toll has crossed 150,000. Worse, the economy is set to register a negative annual GDP growth rate for the first time in decades even as unemployment remains at an all-time high. Yet, as the latest India Today-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll reveals, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity is scaling stratospheric heights and his government’s performance gets a big thumbs-up from respondents.
Far from losing political ground, if a parliamentary election were to be held at this juncture, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with Modi at the helm would retain power with a comfortable majority of 321 seats, according to our MOTN survey. It
is an improvement of five seats over the previous MOTN survey in August 2020, though it is still below the 357 seats that the NDA actually won in the 2019 general election. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to get 291 parliamentary seats, 19 more than required for a simple majority of 272, ensuring that its allies do not constitute a threat to its dominance. Significantly for the BJP, the pandemic and its management have seen it reverse the decline seen in the MOTN survey in January 2020 when the BJP tally fell below the majority mark only months after its emphatic re-election in the 2019 general election.
The pandemic saw Modi consolidate his leadership, making him seem both invincible and indispensable. Seventyfour per cent of the MOTN respondents have rated his performance as good or outstanding, a small dip from the 78 per cent rating in August 2020, yet reiterating the phenomenal popularity rating for a leader now in his seventh year in power. (In the best prime minister ratings, Modi is now far ahead of A.B. Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh, Indira Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru.) The overall performance of his government gets strong endorsement too, with 66 per cent saying they were either satisfied or very satisfied. The only shadow over these shining results is that South India is not as impressed with Modi and the BJP as the rest of the country seems to be. What should also be a cause for concern for Modi and the NDA is that Muslims remain unhappy with their performance, giving them far lower rating than other
communities. Clearly, Modi’s slogan of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas (everyone’s support, everyone’s development, everyone’s trust) finds no resonance with them.
What the latest MOTN poll brings into sharp focus is the solid backing for the agenda propounded by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP’s mentor, that has been put on fast forward ever since Modi was reelected as prime minister. The two biggest achievements of the Modi government those surveyed list are the Supreme Court’s decision paving the way for the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya and the revocation of Article 370 in Kashmir, both of which have been on the mustdo list of the Sangh Parivar. The government’s handling of Covid19 is pushed to third place in this lineup, with the rest of the Modi government’s initiatives, such as Make in India or the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan, getting less than 10 per cent support. The controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Act or CAA which triggered riots in Delhi in February 2020 gets the approval of a majority of those polled (53 per cent). There is also overwhelming 70 per cent support for a Uniform Civil Code, a project dear to the Sangh Parivar. Disconcertingly for liberals, the controversial legislations that invoke the bogey of ‘love jihad’ to target interfaith marriages and stigmatise Muslims were supported strongly by the Hindus polled in the survey.
There are, then, two big messages from our January 2021 MOTN survey:
Narendra Modi has passed a severe test of his leadership and come out with flying colours;
The Sangh Parivar’s agenda has got resounding public approval, bolstering the Hindutva agenda.
So what explains Modi’s soaring popularity and continuing dominance in Indian politics despite daunting odds? Manage
ment expert Neharika Vohra says that true leadership manifests when there is a crisis for which there is no known resolution. The preference then is for effectual action on what she calls adaptive challenges for extraordinary events like the Covid19 pandemic where every leader is searching for solutions. “The leader then says, ‘let’s do the best we can right now and find solutions along the way’. He is also addressing the extreme fear caused by the pandemic both for lives and livelihoods and assures people that he has their back,” Vohra says.
While dealing with the pandemic, Modi seems to have adopted what management specialist Saras D. Sarasvathy in an article for the Society for Effectual Action lists as the five key principles to deal with a crisis and achieve transformative goals. The first principle is known as the ‘bird in hand’. According to it, one should start acting with whatever available information there is rather than waiting for the perfect
opportunity. Witness how Modi opted for a total lockdown even as other leaders hesitated to take drastic action. Modi’s advisors say he took the decision after consulting experts who warned of the pandemic’s rapid spread across the country and advised that a lockdown would give the health sector time to boost capabilities to treat the disease.
hen, Modi followed what she calls the ‘affordable loss’ principle, assessing whether the downsides of his effectual action were acceptable. The government’s reasoning: the loss to the economy could be made up, but the lives lost would be permanent. However, when the lockdown began inf licting debilitating economic losses, Modi used the ‘lemonade’ principle which calls for being f lexible. This, he demonstrated by gradually easing the lockdown, or his Jaan and Jahan decision. Modi also used ‘the crazy quilt’ principle, forming partnerships with organisations and people to jointly carve out the future. The best example of this was how the prime minister got publicprivate participation to indigenise production of personal protection equipment that soon made India self-sufficient and in a position to export them. In all these, Modi’s constant focus was on what is known as the ‘pilot in the plane’ principle, in which a person knows what is in one’s control and then uses it to good effect. Examples of that included providing a Rs 20 lakh crore economic stimulus and using the opportunity to push for selfreliance, as in the Aatmanirbhar Bharat campaign. All this may be among the major reasons why MOTN respondents express a high degree of satisfaction at the way Modi and his government have handled the Covid pandemic.
While admitting that deciphering Modi’s style of leadership is a “work in progress”, management expert L. Gurunathan argues that good leaders in general demonstrate two major qualities when confronted with unexpected challenges like Covid. The first is an ability to introduce a sense of certainty in dealing with uncertain situations. As an example, he points to how Winston Churchill kept assuring his people that he knew what was going to happen and that he was ready for war. Such leaders, even when they do not have all the answers to a problem, exude the confidence that they will deal with it effectively. The second quality is to be a master communicator, which Gurunathan defines as the ability to communicate to the people in a language they can understand and in a manner that connects them directly with their core emotions. Modi seems to have excelled in both qualities during the pandemic. He did this by projecting the assurance that he had things under control and using innovative ways to communicate directly with the people, be it asking them to bang thalis to demonstrate support or advising them to keep do gaz doori and wearing masks to prevent the spread of Covid.
Other experts say that after becoming prime minister, Modi has cultivated a larger-than-life image of a great leader whose popularity is no longer determined by issues. His focus on grand visions and willingness to execute big decisions, such as repealing Article 370 or ordering retaliatory air strikes in Pakistan’s Balakot, which others were wary of doing, has
seen him consolidate that image. He thus comes across as a man who can do no wrong and whose trespasses are forgiven.
Management expert Bala V. Balachandran uses the conventional SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threat) analysis to explain Modi’s continuing popularity. To him, the prime minister’s biggest strengths are his sincerity and integrity. He is seen as incorruptible and has no dynastic predilections. Balachandran says that Modi’s unique blend of leadership described best by two Tamil words: Nallavan and Valiyavan, a good man who is willing to take strong decisions when needed. As far as threats go, none of the current crop of leaders, whether within his party or in the Opposition, poses a threat to him. The MOTN poll shows that Rahul Gandhi has virtually ceased to be a challenge to Modi. As for weaknesses, Balachandran sees the economic downturn exacerbated by the pandemic and the rising unemployment as the government’s Achilles’ heel. The opportunity, he says, lies in galvanising India’s young population to cash in on the dramatic changes in the world economic scene wrought by the pandemic. As Henry Kissinger put it, “The task of the leader is to get his people from where they are to where they have not been.”
While the January 2021 MOTN is a ringing endorsement of Modi’s leadership, it also throws up serious concerns that Modi needs to heed to retain his popularity. Respondents list unemployment as the biggest failure of the Modi government, exacerbated even further by the pandemic. Sixty-six per cent of the respondents in the current
MOTN report a decrease in income. One in five said they had lost their jobs or businesses. Only a third said they had benefitted from the government’s economic stimulus. The Modi government needs to assuage these worries on an urgent basis. Modi has tried to balance welfarism with the Sangh Parivar agenda. But you cannot preach religion to people whose stomachs are empty. Religion, like race, can never be a true binding force for nations. Witness the splits in Christian nations in the past or in our own backyard when a common Muslim population could not hold East and West Pakistan together. What the country needs now is a sharp focus on development and less attention to divisive agendas. On the economic front, the prime minister needs to bring more clarity to the Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiative, and the direction the whole swadeshi drive is headed in. It is fine if this is intended as a sugar-coated pill to convince the RSS to open the economy for exports, but the prime minister must ensure that it discourages protectionism and an inefficient industry.
There is also the danger of what Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman called an ‘ingroup bias’ where supporters can do no wrong and the voices of diversity that make a country a unique democracy are suppressed. On the political front, for instance, instead of alienating Muslims, the government needs to tackle their genuine concerns. Modi was wise to address the Aligarh Muslim University centenary function and give assurances of inclusive development. He must now back his words with decisive action. Also, as the farmers’ agitation has shown, the government needs to adopt a more consultative approach while taking key decisions. That requires the prime minister to build a strong team around him that can question his decisions rather than act as echo chambers. In the coming year, therefore, Modi has his task cut out for him. He can either go on to become one of the greatest prime ministers the country has ever had or leave a legacy of division and despair. Rarely has the country been so dependent on a leader to make the right choice.