TAMIL NADU: THE RETURN OF SASIKALA
On January 19, Tamil Nadu chief minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) flew to Delhi, ostensibly to invite Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the inauguration of the new Jayalalithaa memorial in Chennai. But it was no secret that the main item on the agenda was the impending release of V.K. Sasikala, the mercurial aide of the late AIADMK icon J. Jayalalithaa. She will be released from the Parappanna Agrahara Jail in Bengaluru on January 27. Chennai is already agog with talk of the impact she will have in the coming state assembly election. Of course, since her incarceration in 2017 was on charges of corruption and financial misdemeanour, she is debarred from contesting elections or holding any office for at least another four years.
Political analysts here say her release in an election year will set the proverbial cat among the pigeons. When she was convicted, her former acolytes in the ruling AIADMK, including CM Palaniswami (who she had appointed to the post), had first removed her as the party’s interim general secretary and then sacked and sidelined her and some others who were part of her cabal during Jayalalithaa’s reign. Undeterred, some of them, led by her enterprising nephew T.T.V. Dhinakaran, came together and launched the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK). The party won the assembly byelection for the R.K. Nagar seat in Chennai (forced by Jayalalithaa’s passing) and secured close to 6 per cent of the vote in the 2019 general election, proving that the Sasikala factor was still a force to reckon with in Tamil Nadu.
Her return now fuels speculation on whether she will strike a conciliatory note with those in the AIADMK who disowned her (including EPS and current deputy chief minister O. Panneerselvam, also known as OPS ) or whether she will pursue a path of her own with the AMMK. Her course of action is crucial in an election year as the AMMK has already proved its worth in south Tamil Nadu, where her Thevar community wields influence. This is significant enough to tilt the balance against the ruling AIADMK, considering that the rival DMK leads a formidable alliance, including the Congress and the Left parties.
There is disquiet inside the AIADMK about Sasikala’s ability to swing the cadre, and there’s also no clarity on how to handle her, especially if she were to take the plunge in the campaign. Prospects of a rapprochement between the AIADMK and the AMMK are fraught. Even if Sasikala is eager, the ruling party is divided. State dairy development minister and AIADMK Virudhunagar (West) secretary K.T. Rajenthra Bhalaji and some other leaders are optimistic, while fisheries minister and AIADMK organisation secretary D. Jayakumar says “the party position has been clear since 2017… we want to run the affairs of the government and the party independent of any interference by her or her associates”. Further, he predicts there will be “no impact” if Sasikala were to make a political entry in Tamil Nadu.
The EPS camp is putting on a defiant face, but any false moves by them could push ‘Chinnamma’ (‘mother’s sister’, as she was reverentially called earlier) into a corner, from where she will
Prospects of a rapprochement between the AIADMK and the AMMK are volatile. There is also disquiet inside the AIADMK about Sasikala’s ability to swing the cadre
be forced to fight back. Having shadowed Jayalalithaa for over three decades—even in 1996 when then DMK chief minister M. Karunanidhi had her arrested on corruption charges—Sasikala is no stranger to the murky playground of politics.
The most likely scenario is that those unhappy with the current AIADMK leadership will drift towards the AMMK when Sasikala discloses her political plans. “For now, we are eagerly awaiting Chinnamma’s (Sasikala’s) release and plan to give her a grand welcome,” says AMMK propaganda secretary C.R. Saraswathi. A convoy of cars to take her directly to Jayalalithaa’s mausoleum on Marina beach could be the first public act once she reaches Chennai from Bengaluru. Her last act, before leaving Chennai for jail, was a visit there, where after offering obeisance at her grave, she struck the stone thrice with her palm, an act interpreted widely as a vow to bounce back when she is set free.
It is not yet clear if she wants to be in politics at all, or lead a quiet life. Even an announcement by Sasikala that she is entering politics, if it came to that, would have its own impact. “A lot will also depend on the AIADMK’s seat-sharing talks with the BJP and the PMK (Pattali Makkal Katchi). The BJP has already blinked by finally leaving it to the AIADMK to decide on the CM candidate, long after the latter had announced it. It implies that the AIADMK may also hold the high ground in the seat-sharing talks. For the PMK, the Vanniyar reservations issue (they want 20 per cent exclusive reservation) is also a card in hand,” says political commentator N. Sathiya Moorthy. “If either or both walk out of the alliance, there will be more pressure on the AIADMK to patch up with the AMMK and Sasikala. In such a situation, she will be able to quote her price.”
The weightage given to Sasikala is also speculative as it is based on the AMMK’s voteshare in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll. The AIADMK, especially the EPS camp, seems to have concluded that much of this vote has returned to the party fold. However, in all this, OPS is maintaining a calculated, tactical silence (reports suggest he has touched base with both Sasikala and Dhinakaran, using his Thevar community connections). It may be mainly to strike an honourable deal for his faction in the seat sharing within the AIADMK. The BJP also has to think hard on associating with Sasikala. It might find it hugely embarrassing to be seen in her company, or in Dhinakaran’s, after all the talk denouncing corruption. However, the party will also do whatever it takes to keep the DMK alliance out of power, and if it means walking a thin line on Sasikala, it will likely do that. It might even play second fiddle to the AIADMK, even broker an alliance with the AMMK and PMK, all in the hope of emerging as a bigger force by the 2024 Lok Sabha poll.