KERALA: PINARAYI TAKES CONTROL
The Kerala assembly election is less than three weeks away and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, 75, is busy tying up loose ends. The CPI(M) strongman is eyeing a second term for himself and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and, if it happens, it will be an occasion to savour. The state hasn’t given a repeat mandate to an incumbent government, the LDF or the rival United Democratic Front (UDF), since 1977 when, strangely enamoured with the Emergency, the people gave the Congress a second term in power.
Normally, Pinarayi wouldn’t have fancied his chances as, despite a sterling term where his government overcame many a crisis, the past few months have been mired in scandal. What the LDF has going for it is the surprisingly good performance in the local body elections in December (it energised a somnolent campaign) and the seeming disarray in the rival Congress camp.
Pinarayi has been his confident self of late, parading a new list of loyalist candidates (heavyweights who have been dropped include finance minister Thomas Isaac and perennial winners like Suresh Kurup) and completing his campaign in home constituency Dharmadom by March 15. “In an assembly poll, only your performance matters. And in the past five years, we have shown the people of Kerala what we can do. We will win and return to power with a massive mandate,” says A. Vijayaraghavan, CPI(M) state secretary.
The poll campaign in Dharmadom gave a glimpse into how meticulously
Pinarayi operates. He arrived on March 7, scheduled five pit stops every day in his constituency where he met voters, while mornings and nights were given over to LDF review meetings, government work and sorting out issues regarding party candidates.
Pinarayi was never a mass leader unlike some other Left titans in Kerala, but the past five years have exposed a different, more open side which has won the chief minister a new legion of fans, especially among the intelligentsia and the youth. This is also because he’s not one to pull punches, even while taking on seemingly omnipotent figures like Union home minister Amit Shah. Veteran political commentator T.J.S. George, who has a knack for stirring up debate in the state, says, “Vijayan’s uniqueness has attracted world attention”. Writer Paul Zachariah is also an admirer. “Pinarayi is seen as a leader single-handedly defending the last bastion of liberal democracy while all around are the fallen victims of the politics of communal hatred,” he says.
MINORITY VOTES ARE KEY
The minority communities, who make up 45 per cent of the electorate in
Kerala, are key to any government coming to power. Pinarayi has designed strategies to win them over, networking with prominent religious leaders in the Muslim and Christian communities, and has also got the Kerala Congress (Mani) or KC(M) group into the LDF.
Meanwhile, the BJP is a rising threat, with reports suggesting they could cause damage in over 25 constituencies (of the total 140). The party has had some discussions with Christian community leaders, but sources say nothing much has come of it. A big problem is also the “loss of homogeneity” within the Christian fold. The BJP is still considered an alien party and any concession to one faction risks alienating a number of others.
This is where Pinarayi has played his cards well. He has expanded the LDF beyond the party brief in Kerala, getting more neutral personalities into the fold. The KC(M), an influential Christian community-backed party from central Kerala, is a good example. They could bring in 2-3 per cent of the vote which could prove crucial in 20-25 seats where winning margins are usually less than 2,000 votes. Pinarayi has done the math, but there’s still an unknown quantity—the people of Kerala cannot be taken for granted. It’s a do or die battle for the CPI(M)-led Left Front in Kerala. If they lose, the last Left post in India will fall with Pinarayi. If they win, they will have made history.
PINARAYI HAS DONE THE MATH, EXECUTED HIS STRATEGIES, BUT THERE’S STILL AN UNKNOWN QUANTITY—THE PEOPLE OF KERALA