ASSAM: PROJECT CONFIDENCE
On March 16, Congress leader Shashi Tharoor tweeted: ‘Advice to BJP in Assam and CPIM in Kerala: Ask not how many ships are in the harbour, but which way the wind is blowing!’ It was an indirect assertion that despite the BJP’s high-profile campaign in the two poll-bound states, the saffron party was unlikely to win. However, Tharoor’s counsel to the saffron party’s Assam unit came as a surprise to many, as the BJPled ruling alliance is perceived to be on a strong wicket in the northeastern state.
His analysis of the direction of the ‘electoral wind’ perhaps flows from the confidence shown by the Congress’s Assam unit of a positive outcome in the assembly poll, scheduled in three phases on March 27, April 1 and April 6. This confidence is so high that Gandhi family loyalists in the Congress, expecting victory in Assam, suggest this will give Rahul Gandhi an opportunity to return as party president in June. In November last year, former Union minister Jitendra Singh, who has a great rapport with Rahul, took charge as the AICC (All India Congress Committee) general secretary in-charge of Assam, replacing former Uttarakhand chief minister Harish Rawat. Since then, Singh has been almost single-handedly planning the party’s election campaign.
The first reason for the party’s confidence is the arithmetic of the Congressled grand alliance, which includes the AIUDF (All India United Democratic Front), the BPF (Bodoland People’s Front), the Anchalik Gana Morcha, the CPI, the CPI(M), the CPI(ML) and the RJD. As a result of the Congress-AIUDF combine, the alliance could see wins in 46 seats of the 126-seat assembly (64 are needed for a simple majority), particularly in 33 Muslim-dominated constituencies in lower Assam, the Barak Valley and some in middle Assam. As per the 2011 census, the state had a nearly 35 per cent Muslim population at the time, the majority being of immigrant origin—this is now estimated to be over 40 per cent. Further, the BJP’s polarising politics, targeted at immigrant Muslims, is likely to consolidate the Muslim vote in favour of the grand alliance. And the presence of the BPF brightens the alliance’s prospects in 12 seats in the Bodoland Territorial Area Districts region.
With its electoral arithmetic in place, the Congress has come up with five ‘guarantees’ to woo voters. Primarily aimed at taking advantage of the antiCAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) sentiment of Assamese-speaking people and offering an alternative to the social welfare schemes launched by the BJPled governments at the Centre and in the state, these are: a law that nullifies the CAA, 500,000 government jobs, raising tea workers’ wages to Rs 365 per day, up to 200 units of free electricity per household and a monthly Rs 2,000 in income support to housewives.
The Congress expects to gain in 36 constituencies—mostly in upper Assam—dominated by Assamesespeaking voters who fear the CAA will benefit illegal immigrants and pose a threat to the native language and culture. In 2016, the party won only four of these 36 seats. It also expects to regain ground in nine tea garden-dominated seats by highlighting the BJP’s “betrayal” of tea tribes. “The BJP government did not have a single minister from the tea community. It did not raise the wages of workers as promised. Why should they trust a party that is full of empty promises? That is why we have offered written guarantees,” says Congress leader and former minister Rakibul Hussain.
He is also quick to point out that
THE CONGRESS-LED ALLIANCE COULD SEE WINS IN 46 SEATS, ESPECIALLY IN 33 MUSLIM-DOMINATED CONSTITUENCIES
the BJP backtracked on a promise to give ST (scheduled tribe) status to six communities, including the tea tribes. “Their attitude to these communities is evident—no Ahom MLA was inducted as a minister in the BJP government,” says Hussain, adding that the BJP also failed to deliver on other promises, such as monetary aid to buy gold for brides from families with annual incomes less than Rs 5 lakh.
Few independent observers share the Congress’ confidence in it’s electoral success. Though Assamese-speaking voters may be upset with the BJP over the CAA, they may not see the Congress as a viable alternative because of its alliance with the AIUDF, which is perceived to be protecting illegal Muslim immigrants. The swing votes may go to the Raijor Dal and the Assam Jatiya Parishad, born of the massive agitation against the CAA last year. The two parties have declined to be part of the Congress-led alliance despite multiple requests. To address Assamese voters’ concern over the Congress’ alliance with the AIUDF, Hussain offers another guarantee: “Forget about the post of chief minister—no member of the AIUDF will be made even deputy chief minister if we come to power.”
Professor Akhil Ranjan Dutta, head of the department of political science at Gauhati University, believes that the resentment against the CAA has been significantly diluted, primarily because of the pandemic. He says that it is the dole-oriented schemes launched by the state and central governments that will play a critical role. Besides, the BJP has smartly handled various communities in the state, including the six that are demanding ST status. “In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, through a newspaper article, promised ST status to these communities. It did not happen, yet the BJP won the 2016 assembly poll and the 2019 Lok Sabha poll. This is unlikely to be a voting issue this time around either,” says Dutta.
The Congress may have found electoral issues on which to corner the BJP, but the saffron party is not ready to concede an inch. Since January this year, Prime Minister Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah have visited the state nearly a dozen times. In contrast, since January, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi have visited once each. While the Congress may have electoral arithmetic working in its favour, to achieve its true potential, the party leadership needs to step up its game before it is too late. ■