‘THE BJP WILL UNITE ALL NATIONALIST FORCES’
In an exclusive interview, BJP president Jagat Prakash Nadda reveals the party’s strategy for the future
WHEN HE WAS YOUNG, Jagat Prakash Nadda was an ace sprinter and swimmer, winning gold medals both in school and college in Patna where he grew up. Sports, he said, taught him focus, consistency and the patience to wait for the right opportunity. These qualities held him in good stead when he returned to his home state, Himachal Pradesh, joined politics and was elected an MLA of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In 1998, when the party won the assembly poll, he was bypassed for the chief minister’s post which was given to Prem Kumar Dhumal. The BJP general secretary who made that choice was Narendra Modi. Even though Nadda had worked closely with Modi to ensure the BJP win, he showed no rancour and even joined the Dhumal cabinet. Modi was apparently impressed by Nadda’s positivity and maturity.
Twenty years later, Modi would reward Nadda for his patience and equanimity when the Himachal leader would formally succeed Amit Shah as the BJP president in January 2020. By then, Modi and Shah had built the BJP into the world’s largest political party with over 150 million members. The two leaders had spearheaded the party’s astounding back-to-back parliamentary majorities in the 2014 and 2019 general elections. Not just that, the BJP had by 2018 formed, or was part of, governments in 21 states, which accounted for 70 per cent of the country’s population. This included winning a brute majority in Uttar Pradesh, where it returned to power after a hiatus of 15 years.
Nadda is now the CEO of a colossal political organisation which, in a short span of time, has shaken off the image of “Hindi, Hindu, Hindustan”. The BJP has emerged as the fulcrum of Indian politics. It is now becoming a pan-Indian party that dominates the national political narrative as only the Congress was able to do in the past. Apart from building the BJP into an electoral juggernaut, Shah, as its president, also envisaged a two-pronged role for the party: be a dynamic bridge between the government and the people and use that feedback to provide the government with context and direction for governance. Many saw Nadda as a rubber stamp for Modi and Shah, who would allow them to retain control of the party and be, as one critic put it, nothing more than an “HMV (His Master’s Voice)”. Others, however, believe Nadda was chosen to provide the perfect balance and synergy to ensure the stability and continuity of the party’s growth.
The foremost challenge before Nadda is to fill the very large shoes of Amit Shah. Not only does he have to consolidate the vast political empire Modi and Shah have built but also expand the party’s presence in states to the east and south. The current round of assembly polls will be a litmus test for him and the party. Nadda also has to ensure that the party’s cadre provide grassroots support for the economic reforms that Prime Minister Modi has launched in the past year so that they are not stymied by protests as the new farm laws have been. Nadda is not fazed by the enormity of his tasks, crediting his sports background for his ability to remain calm in the middle of a storm. In an in-depth interview (see ‘The BJP’s strength is its cohesion’), he said, “When we work with team spirit, the results are good. There is continuity and effectiveness and no confusion among the cadre. There are areas where we have an opportunity to expand, so we are putting in resources to strengthen the party’s cadre and structure apart from revitalising our existing base.”
Yet, despite the big wins in the general elections, the BJP’s performance in the state assembly elections in the past three years has been distinctly patchy and a growing cause for worry for its leaders. In 2018, it was ousted from power in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. In the round of state polls after the 2019 general election, it lost power in Jharkhand, was thwarted in Maharashtra, got thrashed in Delhi and had to settle for a coalition in Haryana. The only saving grace was its win in Bihar where the BJP won more seats than its coalition partner, the Janata Dal (United), but not before the upstart scion of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Tejashwi Yadav, gave them a fright and almost snatched victory from them. Given its shaky performance in recent state polls, the big questions being asked are: Has the party’s electoral performance peaked and is it now on the decline? Despite Modi’s iconic status, is his ability to pull votes for the BJP in state polls dwindling?
It is for these reasons that the BJP is pulling out all the stops to do well in the ongoing assembly polls, particularly in West Bengal. The large eastern state is witnessing a fierce contest because, for the first time in three decades, a national ruling party is posing a stiff
challenge to the decade-long reign of the Trinamool Congress (TMC), the regional ruling party headed by Mamata Banerjee. Shah pulled off the feat in the 2019 parliamentary election when the BJP for the first time won 18 of the 42 seats in Bengal, sending Mamata into complete shock.
Now, Modi and Shah have put their reputation on the line to oust Mamata from power and instal the first-ever BJP government in Bengal. Modi is addressing as many as 20 rallies and Shah twice the number. The party has roped in 109 national leaders to campaign in the state, including Union ministers Dharmendra Pradhan, Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Smriti Irani and Girijaj Singh. Union minister of state Babul Supriyo has been fielded as a candidate as have Lok Sabha MPs Locket Chatterjee and Nishit Pramanik, apart from Rajya Sabha MP Swapan Dasgupta.
The stakes are incredibly high. Poll strategist Prashant Kishor, who is guiding the TMC campaign, goes to the extent of saying that were the BJP to win in Bengal, one-nation, one party will become a distinct possibility in the country. He may be overstating the case to frighten the opposition out of its complacency, but if Bengal does fall to the BJP, it is likely to have a multiplier effect in the next round of state elections in 2022, particularly the crucial battle for UP. However, the BJP has its eyes set on the big prize: returning to power for the third consecutive time at the Centre in 2024, a task that would become easier if the BJP won most of the big assembly polls before the general election. “West Bengal can give BJP the much-required electoral legitimacy but, if it loses, it will have a serious bearing on the outcome of the UP polls next year,” says Abhay Kumar Dubey, professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in Delhi. The results will also indicate whether the farmers’ agitation has dented its popularity; a win will encourage it to push through more such reforms. Nadda, however, attributes the BJP’s unbridled aggression to win polls not to electoral insecurity but to something larger than that. “If India has to make rapid progress,” he says, “and we have a dynamic leader in Narendra Modiji, why should the BJP waste time? We have to take advantage and make sure we can bring change and empower people at the grassroots level.”
YET, WHICHEVER WAY the verdicts go in the current round of assembly elections, the BJP needs to introspect on several issues. Among them is the growing perception that it has become an opportunistic party that is willing to gain power at any cost. Engineering defections has become part of its strategy to destroy the opposition and capture power in the states. In West Bengal, one has lost count of the number of TMC MLAs and leaders it has won over to its side. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP toppled the Kamal Nath-led Congress government by getting a sizeable section of the MLAs to defect overnight. It did the same in Goa and Karnataka earlier. In Rajasthan, the party’s attempt to dislodge the Congress government failed. In Maharashtra, the BJP got its comeuppance when its ally, Shiv Sena, joined forces with its opponents to form the government. All this has led critics to dub the BJP as the new Congress.
Nadda refutes the charge hotly in his interview. He points out the difference between ethical and non-ethical means of engineering defections and denies allegations that MLAs and leaders are being bought and sold. The party, he argues, has never compromised on its principles or ideology and is now large enough to accommodate those unhappy in their own parties. The BJP president is on stronger ground when he talks of how he is strengthening the booth management system Shah had perfected. Nadda has gone a step ahead and formed what are known as panna samitis (page committees) to interact with voters listed on every page of the electoral roll and woo them. He is also employing technology, including extensive data analysis, to guide the party’s election strategy, along with training cadre and enrolling block-level leaders to brief voters on the party’s achievements. These are the kind of steps that can bring the party rich dividends in polls rather than defectors from other parties.
While the BJP is using nationalism, identity and development to garner support, resorting to extreme polarisation of voters, as it is doing in Bengal, is fraught with risks. It may bring electoral gains, but at a heavy cost. The BJP already has a trump card in the Modi government’s development agenda, particularly its impressive record in providing toilets, drinking water, housing, cooking gas and roads to the poor. It is among the major reasons why Modi was re-elected in 2019 and could see the party do well even in the upcoming assembly polls. Ramming through the divisive Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), on the other hand, is being seen as nothing but an electoral ploy, with the BJP itself exhibiting ambiguity on its implementation in Assam and West Bengal. The BJP was also left red-faced when the AIADMK, its electoral ally in Tamil Nadu, during the campaign said it will not implement CAA if it returned to power. If the BJP loses in these states, then the fate of CAA is sealed. “The results will determine the direction of minority politics in India. We are all looking forward to it,” says CSDS’s Dubey.
The other problem for the BJP is its growing overdependence on Modi to win assembly elections. Of course, a whole set of new leaders, including Devendra Fadnavis in Maharashtra and M.L. Khattar in Haryana, have been propelled to
THE TRINITY WHILE MODI AND SHAH ARE STRATEGISTS PAR EXCELLENCE, NADDA'S JOB IS TO ENSURE THE EFFECTIVE EXECUTION OF STRATEGIES AND PLANS
prominent positions riding on Modi’s coat-tails. However, the lack of strong local leadership in West Bengal is something the party will have to introspect on and provide answers for. Kailash Vijayvargiya, the BJP’s general secretary in-charge of the state, says, “Announcing a CM candidate is not required. The party has been able to take up issues as well as build a discourse without any face.” Yet, the explanation does little to counter Mamata’s charge that if the BJP comes to power, the state will be “ruled by outsiders”.
ONE OF NADDA’S major tasks is to execute Operation Kamalam, the plan to build its cadre in the five southern states where it lacks a presence: Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Combined, these states send 102 MPs to the Lok Sabha and the BJP’s current tally is just four. Wins in these states would also boost the BJP’s Rajya Sabha numbers, which currently stand at 95 (it needs 123 for a simple majority), forcing it to seek help from allies and like-minded parties to push through crucial bills. So, in Tamil Nadu, it is piggybacking on the AIADMK but while agreeing to contest only 20 seats in the assembly poll, it will try and force its ally to concede the maximum number of the 39 Lok Sabha seats the state has in the 2024 general election.
In Kerala, where the BJP won only one seat in the previous assembly poll, it is now contesting 115 seats, leaving just 25 for its allies. Along with its Hindu consolidation campaign, the BJP is also wooing the Christians and sections of the Muslims in the state. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has even set up an affiliate, the Rashtriya Christian Manch, along with a reoriented Muslim Manch, to focus on its new supporters. The BJP and its NDA constituents have set up committees in 30,450 of the 34,780 polling booths across the state. This reorganisation will hone the BJP’s electoral war machine for the future. The party hopes it will gain more strength to contest the state’s 20 Lok Sabha seats.
With Modi attaining iconic status, akin to Indira Gandhi, and with the party’s fortunes increasingly dependent on his vote-getting abilities, the questions being asked are: After Modi, who? Can the BJP win elections without him? Even Shah, despite his growing prominence, is nowhere close to Modi in the popularity stakes. A win in Bengal will establish Shah’s position as number two. As Nadda says, “At this point of time, Modiji is strong enough. He is in full command and he will continue for long. For us, it is an opportunity to best utilise this and work under his leadership.” Yet, the imperative remains. The BJP must develop a strong second and third line of leaders both at the Centre and in states to lead the party in the not so distant future. That paucity of leadership is the reason why many ministers hold more than two portfolios, with Narendra Tomar in charge of four ministries. This holds up the PM’s development agenda—because he cannot find the competent leadership to execute all his programmes, the prime minister’s office is forced to oversee many of them.
The RSS, the BJP’s ideological mentor, is in principle against the development of cult figures, but has so far looked benignly at Modi’s dominance. That’s because the Modi government has implemented the key items on its agenda, including the abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir and the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya. Consequently, there is far greater coordination and less friction between the BJP and RSS on governance issues. The prime minister was able to push through major economic reforms, including privatisation of PSUs and the opening of key sectors to FDI, despite key RSS affiliates voicing concern. By calling the initiative Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan (Self-Reliance Campaign), Modi signalled it was aligned with the Sangh agenda, so that it would not derail the reform process. Meanwhile, Nadda, to enable greater synergy with the RSS, has been integrating RSS pracharaks into party organisations. Thus, for the first time, the BJP has elevated three pracharaks—V. Satish, Sudan Singh and Shiv Prakash— from joint general secretaries (organisation) to vice presidents and given them special assignments. Shiv Prakash, for instance, has been made in-charge of the crucial state of West Bengal, apart from Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
The BJP is currently working with several advantages that could see it retain power for a long time. Its strength, as one leader put it, is: “We have cadre, leader and Parivar.” It has money power too. Fortunately for the party, the opposition also remains in disarray and has failed to effectively challenge the BJP on key issues. The equation could change if the BJP doesn’t win in Bengal and also loses in Assam. Meanwhile, the ModiShah-Nadda trinity presides over the ever-expanding BJP. While Shah is a proponent of hardline Hindutva, Modi opts for a more nuanced approach. Both, however, are strategists par excellence. Nadda’s job, meanwhile, is to ensure the effective execution of strategies and plans and oversee the running of the party. Compared to the disciplinarian and aggressive go-getter that Shah is, Nadda is more approachable and non-confrontational. The BJP president provides, as an insider says aptly, “continuity, calibration and contextualisation” to party and governance issues. Nadda himself says, “Frankly, I have never felt alone in the job.” With 150 million supporters, can it be any other way? ■
THE BIG QUESTIONS WITH BJP INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON MODI'S VOTE-GETTING ABILITIES, CAN IT WIN WITHOUT HIM? AND AFTER MODI, WHO?