WHAT IS THE BTR?
While some believe the party could yet emerge the dark horse, others feel it has nothing much to offer its cadre or voters
The Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) is an autonomous region created under the 6th Schedule of the Constitution to provide self-rule to the Bodo people in four adjoining districts— Kokrajhar, Chirang, Baksa and Udalguri—in western Assam. The 6th Schedule allows for political autonomy and decentralised governance in certain tribal areas of the Northeast. The Bodos, a plains-dwelling tribe, are the single-largest ST community in Assam, accounting for nearly 6 per cent of its population.
Several Bodo groups have led armed struggles, demanding either a separate state or country for Bodos. Three accords—in 1993, 2003 and 2020—have been signed among the Centre, state and the Bodo groups to bring an end to the insurgency in the region. Following the 2003 accord, the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) was created to administer the four districts then known as the Bodoland Territorial Autonomous Districts, covering an area of over 2,7000 sq. km, or 35 per cent of Assam’s total area. In January 2020, all militant groups gave up their armed struggle and joined the mainstream. The BTAD was rechristened the BTR. A committee is examining the process to redraw the boundaries of the BTR as some non-Bodo areas have been included in the region while some Bododominated villages were left out. Currently, Bodos account for 27 per cent of the BTR’s population. The other communities in the region include Assamese, Bengali, Koch-Rajbongshi, Rabha, Garo, Adivasi, Muslim and Nepali.
IN
the upcoming Kerala assembly election, scheduled for April 6, the Congress appears to be locked in a battle for survival. Though the party has fielded 55 new candidates and pressed the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF (Left Democratic Front) government on multiple issues, observers say it has only just managed to fight its way back from ruin.
Recently, responding to a complaint filed by the Congress, the Election Commission ordered the state government to halt the distribution of food kits until polling has been concluded. Though this comes late in the day, it may limit how much public goodwill the LDF carries to the polls through this distribution of state resources. On a similar note, the Congress has been making much of a now-cancelled deal valued at several thousand crores between the Kerala Inland Navigation Corporation and EMCC International to develop a major corporate fishing unit which may have violated the state’s fishing policy and could have put the livelihoods of independent fishermen at risk. The party has also brought in its big guns—Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi, as well as senior leader A.K. Antony—to target the LDF.
“I would say the Congress has a 50-50 chance at the polls,” says Sunnikutty Abraham, a political analyst who has closely monitored the party over the past four decades. “It has intelligently positioned itself to defend against the LDF. The Gandhis, with their impressive showing, have helped the Congress-led UDF (United Democratic Front) to re-emerge [as a credible contender] and [the alliance] may scrape through by fashioning a victory similar to 2011 in which the Congress-led alliance won with 72 of the 140 assembly seats.”
In Kerala, the Congress has been in virtual political exile since the 2016 assembly election, and the party appears to have been banking on the state’s tradition of switching governments every five years, though this may prove a bad bet. “None of the recent poll surveys favour the Congress,” says N.P. Rajendran, a senior journalist based in Kozhikode who is a keen observer of the state’s politics. “If they win, it would be a [major political upset]. But how can they win without a decent showing in northern Kerala? I am betting on the LDF returning to power with over 75 seats,” he says. He points to the fact that the Congress has a very weak base in the north of the state, and that it is depending on the IUML (Indian Union Muslim League) to bolster its position, adding that the Congress has been struggling with funding and is finding it difficult to compete with LDF and NDA opponents.
Knowing well that a major defeat in Kerala could have serious long-term consequences, the Congress has been banking on the Gandhi family name to reverse the political tide. Nonetheless, poll surveys across the board predict the party getting a maximum of 37.5 per cent of the total vote. To win, it will need at least five percentage points more than that.
However, others are more hopeful. Paul Zacharia, noted Malyalam writer, says that the CPI(M) would be making a major mistake to underestimate the Gandhi factor. “The Gandhis could corner [substantial] votes for the Congress,” he says. “In the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, Rahul Gandhi was a major draw for minority voters. They are attempting a similar strategy, with Priyanka Gandhi campaigning for the Congress. I feel that the Gandhis could still influence Kerala’s voters with their popularity.” Saying that the people of Kerala still feel great loyalty to the Congress’s first family, he adds: “It may be that they [no longer] have relevance in the Hindi belt. In Kerala, they still have a votebank among women and young people.” It is certainly true that the Congress has been doing its best to exploit the Gandhi factor, parading them even in constituencies where it has no chance of winning.
For the upcoming poll, the Congress faces five major challenges. The first is that the party doesn’t have a clear leader like the CPI(M)’s Pinarayi Vijayan. Second, many say that the Congress has been playing as the BJP’s ‘Bteam’ for several years now. Thirdly, the party was nowhere to be seen on the political stage through the Covid-19 pandemic. The fourth and fifth factors are related: lacking a major poll plank or larger political strategy, the party has failed to generate hope for its cadre in Kerala and convince them that the party has a future.
“If the party looks beyond its borders, it could have a bright future in Kerala,” says K.T. Benny, a Congress youth leader who contested the polls but lost in 2011. “We need to improve our work at the ground level and organise the party better. But its current exercise disappointed me as it showed that there is no collective leadership.” He does bank on Rahul Gandhi’s personal appeal to rescue the party.
Karthikeyan Devadas, a voter from Paravur, says that the Congress will have to reinvent itself and develop a new political dynamic to attract voters. “We are a generation who have hated the Congress for the Emergency,” he says. “We have never pardoned their past misdeeds. In Kerala, the Left is the only hope. They have proved it when we were in distress. The Congress has always tried to block development or throttle the poor as it is driven by its own agenda.” This reveals another stern challenge facing the Congress-led UDF in Kerala—poor credibility.
However, history is full of stories in which defenders have emerged victorious. In defence-led strategies, a common tactic is to lead an opponent into a strategic blunder that can be exploited. The Congress could find a similar strategy useful in Kerala—if the LDF is bogged down in the Sabrimala issue, the Gandhi family name may prove enough to see it through to the finish. ■
POLL SURVEYS ACROSS THE BOARD SHOW THE CONGRESS GETTING A MAXIMUM OF 37.5 PER CENT OF THE VOTE. TO WIN, IT WILL NEED AT LEAST FIVE PERCENTAGE POINTS MORE