WHEAT FEELS THE HEAT
India’s food security may be staring at a crisis this year. At the centre of this is the rising mercury that has sent alarm bells ringing in the wheat-producing belts in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar and Gujarat. The consistently higher-than-normal temperatures during this critical time in the wheat crop cycle are likely to adversely impact the government’s output estimates. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), February 2023 was the warmest since 1901. The maximum temperature reached 29.54 degrees Celsius—1.7 degrees higher than normal.
The farm community apart, policymakers, too, are concerned given that lower production of wheat would have a cascading effect on Public Distribution System (PDS) planning, food inflation and, eventually, the general economic scenario. This week, Prime Minister
Narendra Modi took cognisance of the harsh summer forecast and directed the Food Corporation of India to ensure optimal storage of grains.
In areas outside commands of irrigation projects, sowing of wheat was mostly done belatedly last year, in November and December, because of the delayed withdrawal of monsoon in parts of the country. A sedate spring would have helped, but excessive heat at the pre-flowering and flowering stages is now affecting pod formation and plants that have the seed formed in them. Heat has an effect of ‘forced ripening’ which leads to shrivelling of the grain and consequent weight loss. Rains, hail and thunderstorms in central India brought a temporary respite from the heat, but equally the risk of crop damage. And the heat is likely to return in the coming days.
Estimates vary, but a study by a group of scientists from universities in the US,
Europe, Australia and China indicates a drop of 6 per cent in wheat production for every one degree Celsius rise in temperature. The excessive temperatures are thus playing a spoiler in India’s plans for a bumper harvest. Wheat production was estimated at 112.8 million tonnes (MT) in the 2022-23 rabi crop cycle. In 2021-22, estimates stood at 111.32 MT, subsequently revised to 107.74 MT. The drop was a result of excessive heat in the days just after Holi across India. This year, the onset of summer seems much earlier than even that, almost a month ahead in fact.
The estimated increase in wheat production this year was mainly due to an addition of 0.13 million hectares (mha) in sown area, which took the total area under the crop to 34.32 mha across the country in 2022-23. “As farmers,
we are extremely concerned, but there is little we can do. In fields where wheat sowing was later (in December) and crops are green, pod formation is taking place prematurely. The heat will eventually lead to lesser seeds in each pod, reduction in pod length and grain shrivelling, all contributing to weight loss,” says Rajendra Singh Jaat, a farmer in Umraoganj village, along the river Narmada, in Raisen—one of the best wheat production districts in MP. “We can only pray to god,” he adds when asked if something can be done to minimise the adverse effects of heat.
“Concerned over the persistently high temperatures, the Centre’s scientists met on February 26 to chalk out a strategy for mitigating the effects of heat,” says Dr G.P. Singh, director of the Karnalbased Indian Institute of
Wheat and Barley Research. The agricultural scientist community is suggesting ways to reduce the impact of the heat, but there is a question mark over how much of it can be implemented. Suggestions include using mulch and irrigation to keep ground temperatures down. Jaat, however, cautions that using water while temperatures are high can also lead to excessive heat release from the ground, killing the plant (locally called
ukasnaa) before it can complete its life cycle.
Lower production of wheat is likely to impact the plate in wheat-consuming areas. As it is, the drop in production last year led to the replacement of wheat with rice in the PDS (public distribution system) in states such as MP, UP and Gujarat where the grain is the staple crop. And in states such as Bihar and Kerala, the distribution of wheat was totally stopped and replaced with rice. Moreover, the extra central assistance under the
PM Garib Kalyan Yojana has been stopped in MP since last month. While wheat stocks currently are above buffer levels, a lot depends on what the final production numbers in 2023 will be.
At around Rs 2,500 per quintal for the mill variety (which is the most basic), wheat is presently already almost 20 per cent costlier than its price level during February last year. Though the minimum support price (MSP) announced for 2023 is Rs 2,125, the market price is expected to be much higher. This would lead to a drop in procurement by government agencies, and potential diversion to hoarders, which will only worsen the crisis.
For consumers, a lower production will hike prices further, contributing to inflation. And on the producer side, the chances of the ban on wheat exports being lifted seem bleak in this scenario. This may deny farmers any chances of getting a higher price, which could have offset production losses.
Not all within the agricultural scientific community are pessimistic. A.K. Singh, director, Indian Agriculture Research Institute, said late last month that there was less likelihood of terminal heat conditions setting in before March 16 by when the grainfilling stage of wheat would be over. If the weather does not act whimsical, that is. ■
LOWER PRODUCTION OF WHEAT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE PLATE IN INDIA’S WHEATCONSUMING STATES
For a state formed on linguistic lines, it may come as a surprise that Gujarat took over six decades to make the teaching of its native language mandatory in elementary classes across all schools, irrespective of the medium of instruction or affiliation. In doing so, it has joined states like Maharashtra (which along with Gujarat was carved out from the erstwhile Bombay state in 1960), Punjab and Telangana that have passed similar legislations in recent years.
Titled the Gujarat Compulsory Teaching and Learning of Gujarati Language Bill, 2023, the proposed legislation got the state assembly’s unanimous nod on February 28. It has basically given teeth to a 2018 government resolution (GR) that pushed for the teaching of Gujarati language even in non-Gujarati medium schools. Now, the schools that fail to comply will face a penalty of Rs 50,000, Rs 1 lakh and Rs 2 lakh for the first three violations, respectively, and can also lose their registration upon the third breach.
The immediate trigger for the state government to introduce the bill was last month’s rap from the Gujarat High Court, which is hearing a public interest litigation (PIL) that seeks the implementation of the 2018 GR in its “true letter and spirit”. According to the state’s primary education department, only 14 of the 4,520 schools surveyed on the court’s directions were not teaching Gujarati. But Ahmedabad-based NGO Matrubhasha Abhiyaan, which had moved the PIL, claimed the number of schools where Gujarati is not offered at all or is an optional subject is upwards of 100. Even as the court sought another survey to confirm numbers, the government decided to bring in the legislation.
According to Dr M.I. Joshi, director of primary education, Gujarat, non-domicile students whose parents are working in the state “for a temporary period” have been exempted from the mandatory learning of Gujarati, thus taking care of one of the potential sticking points. “Except for that, we have only encountered attitudinal resistance,” he says. “Sure, schools will have to accommodate an additional subject but, within a year, these teething issues should be sorted.” Claiming that schools were in any case expecting such a move following the GR in 2018, Joshi says it will also help create job opportunities for youths who graduate in Gujarati language.
Rajendra Patel, a trustee of the Matrubhasha Abhiyaan, claims that it’s “well-established scientifically” that primary education must be in the mother tongue for a student to understand the basic concepts properly. “We do not undermine the importance of English as the language of higher technical education and business. But proficiency in English need not be at the cost of the mother tongue,” he adds. Even the National Education Policy (NEP), 2020 recommends the mother tongue to be the medium of instruction until at least Class 5, and preferably till Class 8 and beyond.
To set the record straight, the present legislation only makes Gujarati a mandatory subject in Classes 1-8 and in no way suggests that it should be the medium of instruction in schools. There are 9,965 primary schools in Gujarat, where about 3.1 million children are enrolled. Of these, 6,018 schools with 2.5 million students have Gujarati as the medium of instruction. It leaves about 20 per cent of the state’s schoolchildren who are being instructed in
A NEW STATE LAW MAKES GUJARATI A MANDATORY SUBJECT IN CLASSES 1-8; ERRANT SCHOOLS WILL FACE THE MUSIC
a medium other than Gujarati and are studying it as a language subject in varying degrees—or not at all—in primary classes. They may seem to be in a minority, but Patel points out that as English is the “language of aspiration”, English-medium schools are on the rise—3,478 or 35 per cent of the total—and even penetrating the state’s semi-urban areas.
Gujarati, linguists fear, will stop being a language of literate knowledge and could be reduced to an oral language in a few decades. Litterateurs are already alarmed at the distinct fall in publication of original Gujarati literature. In 2020, the last time the Gujarat education board held regular Class 10 exams, 14.5 per cent of students who had done their entire schooling in Gujarati medium, ironically, flunked the Gujarati language paper.
“Teachers are expected to not only teach the alphabet, but inspire students to read Gujarati literature too,” reasons Patel. “But schools alone can’t make a child proficient in the language without the parents’ support. For decades now, Gujarati has stopped being ‘cool’. The new law will bring it back in vogue, so to speak.” Or, at least, it will ensure the state’s children learn to read and write in their native tongue. ■