Sheikh Hasina's Win In Bangladesh And What It Means For India
Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's party Awami League has won a fourth consecutive term in general elections. This is Sheikh Hasina's fifth term as Prime Minister. The main Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by former PM Khaleda Zia boycotted the elections. Zia was arrested for "anti-national" activities just before the elections after she demanded that Hasina step down to make way for a neutral caretaker government.
The low voter turnout is also controversial. The official figure is 40 per cent but reports suggest it could be less than 28 per cent. The turnout on the dashboard at the election body headquarters, hours after the press briefing, was 28 per cent according to a widely shared screenshot on social media. The BNP has rejected the elections as 'dummy polls'.
Though voting day passed off peacefully, the run-up to the elections saw violent protests and deadly arson. The government accused the BNP of inciting violence to sabotage the election.
Many countries, including the US, have alleged that the January 7 elections were not free and fair and riddled with irregularities. Critics have also cautioned against the virtual one-party rule of Sheikh Hasina's party in the absence of any Opposition.
"The decision of the BNP to abstain from elections is their party's strategic choice. The BNP has been involved in political violence and arson since October 28. A democratic government can't just sit and watch. It is the responsibility of the government to protect the lives and property of the people. The government had no other option but to take action against such terrorism," says Syed Borhan Kabir, chief editor, Bangla Insider.
He added: "It is true that if the BNP had participated in elections, democracy would be complete, and the election would have been competitive. In such a scenario, voter turnout is always low. Nevertheless, 41 per cent of voters have cast their votes, which is not bad. A weak constitutional government is much better than an unconstitutional government."
Burgeoning India-Bangladesh Partnership
Bangladesh has always accepted India's role in its independence in 1971. The two countries share a common history and heritage, linguistic and cultural ties. They share a unique geographical feature - not only is Bangladesh surrounded by India on all sides, but they share 54 rivers between them, which flow from the Himalayas to the Bay of Bengal. With so many similarities, people-topeople ties and development cooperation have taken precedence.
Yet, there have been periods of mutual distrust. Mr Kabir explains that after 1975, due to emerging anti-India sentiments and a shift towards Pakistan-centric politics in Bangladesh, there was a period of strained relations, and Bangladesh's territory was sometimes used to target India. "In 2009, Sheikh Hasina adopted a zero-tolerance policy against terrorism. The rise of separatist elements is not something India desires. Concurrently, the mutual trust and confidence between the two countries have strengthened over the last 15 years," he says.
There is resentment in Bangladesh against the failed agreement to share Teesta River water, which was to be signed in September 2011. The anxiety over transboundary effects of the proposed
National Register of Citizens and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, as well as sporadic incidents of Bangladeshi infiltrators being shot at on the border, are issues that rankle with Bangladesh.
On the economic front, a balance of trade skewed in favour of India, the large volume of informal trade, again dominated by India, has resulted in a trade deficit and Bangladesh expects Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government to resolve these matters. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, Indian exports to Bangladesh between April and October 2023 declined by 13.32 per cent, while imports saw a smaller 2.3 per cent dip. This has been attributed to Bangladesh's forex shortages and liquidity crunch and maybe election-related slowdown there.
For India, which is looking at stronger momentum in bilateral partnership, there can't be better news than PM Hasina's win. To iron out concerns, India and Bangladesh have had foreign secretarylevel talks on key areas such as security, trade and regional connectivity. The two sides also discussed the river Teesta dispute and other water-sharing treaties last November.
India values Bangladesh, and this was demonstrated when PM Hasina was the only South Asian leader invited to the G20 Leaders' Summit under India's presidency.
To promote ties, PM Modi and Sheikh Hasina recently inaugurated three projects, the AkhauraAgartala Cross-Border Rail Link, Khulna-Mongla Port Rail Line, and Unit-II of the Maitree Super Critical Thermal Power Plant in Rampal, Bangladesh. These projects are aimed at strengthening connectivity and energy security in the region. The Bangladesh government has also allowed the transit and trans-shipment of cargo from West Bengal to the northeastern states via Chattogram and Mongla ports.
There are ongoing talks between India and Bangladesh for a free trade agreement between the two countries to promote economic ties. Under CEPA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement), the two trading partners will be able to reduce or eliminate customs duties on the maximum number of goods traded between them. Last year, India and Bangladesh initiated trade transactions in rupees to reduce dependence on the US dollar and strengthen the regional currency trade.
"Bilateral relations between the two countries are at their peak. In the short term, there will be business as usual but in the long run, if no concrete agreements are signed, people will see through it. Water sharing has always been an emotive issue for the common people," says Sreeradha Datta, professor of International Affairs, Jindal Global University.
"The people of Bangladesh feel that they have supported India in opening their trade corridor and facilitating cross-border bilateral engagement. It's high time for India to reciprocate," says Ms Datta.
India and Bangladesh need each other to survive and thrive. Radicalisation is a common enemy and only a joint fight will help. Lessons in geopolitics point towards countries forging mutually beneficial relationships. There is no guideline for that.