2013 Research
such as skiing, snowboarding, and crosscountry skiing. The change in climate will put further pressure on the sensitive environment of high mountains.”
It said that the mountain areas are sensitive to climate change and the implications of climate change can be seen in less snow, receding glaciers, increasing temperatures, and decreasing precipitation.
The skiing season at Gulmarg tourist resort usually commences before Christmas (around mid-December) and continues till mid-April. However, due to increase in winter temperature, the actual time period for snowfall has undergone a change with December and January receiving scanty or no snowfall while February and March witnessing heavy snowfall.
Similarly, the quantity of snow, according to the study, has clearly reduced over the years as revealed by the snow depletion curves. Although occasionally it does have spells of heavy fall, the inability of snow to freeze and develop into a long lasting snow cover in February and March owing to higher temperatures results in faster meltdown and if followed by rainfall into devastating floods.
A considerable area in these regions (Gulmarg and Pahalgam) remains under the snow and glacier cover throughout the year especially during the winter and spring seasons.
“...However, time series analysis of LandSat MODIS images using Normalized Difference Snow Index shows a decreasing trend in snow cover in both the regions from the past few years,” the study says, adding, “Similarly, the stream discharge, comprising predominantly of snow- and glacier-melt, is showing a statistically significant declining trend despite the melting of these glaciers.”
The study further maintains that the predicted futuristic trends of temperature from Predicting Regional Climates for Impact Studies regional climate models are showing an increase which may enhance snow-melting in the near future posing a serious threat to the sustainability of winter tourism in the region.
“Hence, it becomes essential to monitor the changes in temperature and snow cover depletion in these basins in order to evaluate their effect on the winter tourism and water resources in the region,” the study adds.
Notably, both the tourist resorts witness huge rush of tourists and many national and international skiers travel to Kashmir during winters for sikking. However due to ongoing dry-spell and no snowfall, hundreds of skiers have canceled the hotel bookings and have abandoned the plan to visit the valley.
“This is impacting our business as many players have canceled their bookings,” said Farhat Nai, a snowboard instructor.
The study further noted that the winter accumulation of snow has drastically reduced owing to an increase in average minimum