How rapid technological changes could impact our future

Bewilderingly rapid changes are happening in the technology and reach of computer systems. There are exciting advances in artificial intelligence, in the masses of tiny interconnected devices we call the Internet of Things and in wireless connectivity.

Unfortunately, these improvements bring potential dangers as well as benefits. To get a safe future we need to anticipate what might happen in computing and address it early. So, what do experts think will happen, and what might we do to prevent major problems?

To answer that question, Our research team from universities in Lancaster and Manchester turned to the science of looking into the future, which is called forecasting. No one can predict the future, but we can put together forecasts: descriptions of what may happen based on current trends.

Indeed, long-term forecasts of trends in technology can prove remarkably accurate. And an excellent way to get forecasts is to combine the ideas of many different experts to find where they agree.

We consulted 12 expert futurists for a new research paper. These are people whose roles involves longterm forecasting on the effects of changes in computer technology by the year 2040.

Using a technique called a Delphi study, we combined the futurists' forecasts into a set of risks, along with their recommendations for addressing those risks.

The experts foresaw rapid progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and connected systems, leading to a much more computer-driven world than nowadays. Surprisingly, though, they expected little impact from two much hyped innovations: Blockchain, a way to record information that makes it impossible or difficult for the system to be manipulated, they suggested, is mostly irrelevant to today's problems; and Quantum computing is still at an early stage and may have little impact in the next 15 years.

The futurists highlighted three major risks associated with developments in computer software, as follows.

Our experts suggested that many countries' stance on AI as an area where they want to gain a competitive, technological edge will encourage software developers to take risks in their use of AI. This, combined with AI's complexity and potential to surpass human abilities, could lead to disasters.

For example, imagine that shortcuts in testing lead to an error in the control systems of cars built after 2025, which goes unnoticed amid all the complex programming of AI. It could even be linked to a specific date, causing large numbers of cars to start behaving erratically at the same time, killing many people worldwide.

Generative AI may make truth impossible to determine. For years, photos and videos have been very difficult to fake, and so we expect them to be genuine. Generative AI has already radically changed this situation. We expect its ability to produce convincing fake media to improve so it will be extremely difficult to tell whether some image or video is real.

Supposing someone in a position of trust a respected leader, or a celebrity uses social media to show genuine content, but occasionally incorporates convincing fakes. For those following them, there is no way to determine the difference it will be impossible to know the truth.