Second phase of polling on April 26: BJP likely to face challenges

After the 102 Lok Sabha seats went to polls in the first phase on April 19, the second phase of polling on April 26, covering 89 parliamentary seats spread across 13 states and Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir is likely to pose challenges for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which is seeking a third consecutive term in power.

States going to polls in the second phase are:- Bihar (5), Chhattisgarh (3), Karnataka (14), Madhya Pradesh (7), Uttar Pradesh (8), West Bengal (3), Maharashtra (8), Rajasthan (13), Manipur (1), Kerala (20), Tripura (1), Jammu and Kashmir (1), and Assam (5).

From the second phase of the Lok Sabha polls onwards, the BJP faces significant challenges as it navigates into tougher regions where it is considered to be at a disadvantage.

In particular, the party faces backlash from farmers and is encountering resistance from the poor and Dalit communities.

This opposition stems from dissatisfaction with the party’s stance on agricultural issues and economic policies affecting the underprivileged.

Meanwhile, experts feel that Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s focus on policies and concerns directly impacting vulnerable groups are likely to find a strong resonance with voters who feel left out by the BJP’s agenda.

Political analysts suggest that the BJP’s gains in northern India from the last Lok Sabha polls of 2019 may be eroding, potentially jeopardizing the saffron party’s chance for a record third term. Analysts see the emerging caste-based alignment, such as the support from Rajputs and Jats against the BJP, as beneficial for the Congress.

Looking at the vote share in the three key Hindi-speaking states from recent assembly elections last year, the margins between the BJP and Congress are slim.

In Rajasthan, the BJP secured 41.7 per cent of the votes, compared to Congress’s 39.6 per cent. In Chhattisgarh, the gap is slightly wider, with the BJP at 46.3 per cent and the Congress at 42.2 per cent.

The largest disparity is in Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP garnered 48.6 per cent of the votes and Congress obtained 40 per cent, marking an 8 per cent difference. Despite losing in all three states, Congress’s vote share of 40 per cent or more positions them well for a potential comeback, indicating that they have a strong base from which to build their electoral strategy.

The star campaigner for the BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has launched sharp attacks on the Congress party and its leadership, indicating a strategy aimed at energizing his base while simultaneously attempting to discredit his political rivals.

This shift in rhetoric suggests a more confrontational approach, focusing on issues that resonate strongly with certain segments of the electorate. Experts point out how the BJP strategically employs psychological tactics to achieve victories. The party can obscure contradictory facts and shift perceptions by exaggerating a small kernel of truth. This tactic can demoralize political opponents and may find some takers among the electorate.

Starting with one of the Hindi-speaking states - Rajasthan with 25 Lok Sabha seats is emerging as a key battleground in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections.

Sources suggest that the situation is looking favourable for the Congress party and its allies, including the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M). The parties are putting up a strong fight in around a dozen seats, particularly in the Marwar region.

One significant factor contributing to this scenario is the impact of farmers’ and Jats’ anger, which seems to be working against the BJP and in favour of the opposition. The Congress and its allies are aiming to secure a potential victory in 5 to 7 constituencies in the state. Overall, the combination of local issues, such as farmers’ grievances, and dissatisfaction with the current state leadership, is setting the stage for a more competitive electoral landscape in Rajasthan where BJP had swept in the 2019 parliamentary elections.

In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress is relying on prominent candidates in key constituencies, such as Nakul Nath in Chhindwara and Digvijaya Singh in Rajgarh who are among the big names spearheading the Congress’s campaign.

These well-known leaders bring substantial experience and influence to the table, which the party hopes will translate into substantial success at the polls.

Despite the party’s strong candidates, Congress acknowledges that the electoral contest is intense and primarily limited to a few constituencies — about “three to four seats.” This suggests a highly focused strategy on the part of the party, as they concentrate their resources and efforts on these critical battlegrounds.

In Chhattisgarh, Congress is engaged in tough contests, with a realistic chance of securing 3 to 5 seats and the performance in these seats could be crucial in determining the overall electoral outcome in the state.

In Bihar and Maharashtra, the I.N.D.I.A. bloc’s coalition is said to be performing strongly in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. According to sources, the alliance partners hold a strategic advantage and are potentially positioned to secure 20 to 25 seats in each state. The collaboration of the opposition parties within the bloc has strengthened their position against the BJP by presenting a united front to voters.

In Jharkhand, recent developments have added an unexpected twist to the electoral landscape. Former chief minister Hemant Soren’s arrest has been perceived as a significant boost for the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, potentially influencing the voting dynamics in the state. The situation is said to be asti creating noticeable shifts in five tribal seats, possibly due to increased sympathy for the party among certain voter groups or as a reaction against the circumstances surrounding Soren’s arrest.

Analysts say that in the lead-up to the ongoing elections, PM Modi has found himself compelled to raise various contentious issues during his campaign. Poll pundits have noted this shift in focus, pointing out that Modi’s recent comments on sensitive topics such as the Constitution and the Congress party’s leadership, dynastic rule, redistribution of wealth.

In another such instance, Modi asserted that even if Dr. B.R. Ambedkar, the architect of the Indian Constitution, would not be able to abolish the Constitution.

Voters are best placed to answer through ballot, if such utterances of Modi which have already started a political storm will find any takers.