UP polls: Securing the all-important Muslim vote
Voters from the minority community will determine the outcome of the second phase. UP BJP workers are demoralised after first round of polls, writes Pradeep Kapoor
Thousands of workers in brass industry of Moradabad, wooden furniture industry of Bareilly, and other traditional industries there and at other places were rendered jobless due to poor implementation of demonetisation. Now their families have resolved to oppose BJP candidates
The second phase polling in Uttar Pradesh on February 15 is the real test of the Muslim card which plays a crucial role in 67 Assembly constituencies across 11 districts. It is going to be a show of strength for the Akhilesh Yadav-rahul Gandhi team on the one hand and BSP supremo Mayawati on the other in their bid for Muslim votes. The Bharatiya Janata Party, meanwhile, is banking on Hindu polarisation.
Can the Samajwadi Party retain its traditional Muslim voters? Will an alliance with the Congress be of any benefit? The answers to these questions are up for debate. The BSP, meanwhile, has made a pitch for aggressive minority outreach to win more seats this time. For the BJP, a split in the Muslim vote may work in their favour. It would be worth mentioning here Samajwadi Party which swept to power in 2012 Assembly poll, had won 34 seats followed by 18 for the BSP. The BJP won 10, and the Congress finished fourth with three. Reports indicate that Muslims make up more than 30 per cent of the population in 7 out of 11 districts going to the polls in the second phase on February 15. In some constituencies like Moradabad and Rampur, the figure goes up to almost 50 per cent.
Keeping this aspect in mind, the Sp-congress combine and BSP made maximum efforts to reach out to the Muslim community to get its support. So much so, Muslim clerics, Ulema Council, and Muslim organisations were approached by political parties to get their support. The Muslim face of BSP and former minister Nasimuddin Siddiqui succeeded in getting support from Imam Bukhari of Jama Masjid of Delhi, Shia religious leader Maulana Kalbe Jawad, and many others who issued an appeal in favour of Mayawati and her party candidates. On the other hand, Sunni leader Khalid Rasheed Firangi Mahali and Principal of Nadwa-ul-islam Maulana Saeedur-rehman Nadvi and others met the Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and announced their support for Samajwadi Party and Congress alliance.
Going by the experience of the first phase of polls, the Muslims voted for strong candidates of Samajwadi Party, BSP, RLD, and Congress to defeat BJP. Too many Muslim candidates in the same seats will also create a problem for political parties. Out of 67 seats, BSP has fielded 27 Muslim candidates followed by 25 from Sp-congress combine and 13 from RLD. There are 15 seats where all the political parties have fielded Muslim candidates to create a problem for Muslim voters.
In Rampur, prominent Cabinet Minister Mohd Azam is facing Tanveer from BSP and Asim Khan from RLD. Similarly, Azam Khan’s son Abdullah Azam is contesting from Suar Assembly constituency, and he is facing sitting BSP MLA Nawab Kazim Ali. In Badaun also, the prestige of sitting SP MP Dharmendra Yadav, cousin brother of Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, is at stake. Like other parties and other official candidates, SP candidates are also facing stiff resistance from rebels who are enjoying support from Mulayam Singh Yadav and his younger brother Shivpal. The Congress is banking on the popularity of firebrand leader Imran Masood who had shot to limelight with his controversial statement on Narendra Modi. He was given a free hand by Congress high command in ticket distribution in his region. Although the BJP is banking on the split in Muslim votes for BSP, Sp-congress, and RLD, at the same facing anger from the voters on the issue of hardship faced due to demonetisation,
Thousands of workers in the brass industry of Moradabad and wooden furniture industry of Bareilly and other traditional industries there and other places were rendered jobless due to poor implementation of demonetisation. Now their families have resolved to oppose BJP candidates. So much so, BJP leaders and supporters were humiliated by the public on the issue of demonetisation in various constituencies.
Political analysts feel that BJP national president Amit Shah may claim that his party would win 50 out of 73 seats in the first phase and 90 in next two phases, but the reality is different.
(The views expressed are strictly personal.)