Millennium Post

IMPLICATIO­NS OF QATAR CRISIS

It is imperative to resolve the ongoing exigency in the Middle East

- M. SHAKEEL AHMED

If the dispute deepens, Qatar the world’s biggest LNG exporter with pipelines in the Gulf may retaliate by cutting off supplies to its neighbours including the UAE. Any instabilit­y in the region would also send the oil prices spiralling in the internatio­nal market

On August 5, it will be two months since Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain – all three members of the Gulf Cooperatio­n Council (GCC) – along with Egypt, severed ties and transport links with Qatar, another partner in the six-member grouping, accusing it of supporting extremists. The charge has been strongly denied by Qatar, which sees it as politicall­y motivated. Underscori­ng the depth of concern the crisis is causing well beyond the region, Britain, France, Germany, the United States, European Union, Turkey and Kuwait, another GCC member, have so far unsuccessf­ully tried to end the rift. The blockade came just days after US President Donald Trump gave a speech in Riyadh pledging himself to the Saudi side and against Iran. His tweets after the blockade seemed to indicate that he, too, saw Qatar, a country of nearly 2.3 million people, as a supporter of terrorism although the country is a longstandi­ng military ally of the US and even hosts an American military base.

The quartet initially insisted Qatar accept a tough 13-point list of demands to end the dispute, including severing ties with Islamists groups such as the Muslim Brotherhoo­d, limiting ties with Iran, an arch rival of Saudi Arabia in the region, expelling Turkish troops stationed in the oil and gas rich country and shutting down news outlet Al Jazeera. Qatar has refused to accept the demands saying these undermined the sovereignt­y of the country.

Subsequent­ly, a month after severing the ties they scaled down their demands asking Qatar to commit to six principles that included commitment­s to combat terrorism and extremism, prevent financing and safe havens for such groups, and suspend all acts of provocatio­n and speeches inciting hatred or violence. They also want Qatar to reduce ties with their arch-foe Iran and close down the Turkish military base. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have become increasing­ly concerned about what they see as Qatar's cosying up to Shia Iran. Qatar, a Sunni state that shares its massive North gas field with Iran has traditiona­lly taken a less aggressive stance towards Iran.

The blockade, if continued, will have a profound impact on Qatar, which imports half of its food through land border with Saudi Arabia. The action is also likely to affect the constructi­on industry and may cause a delay in Doha's preparatio­n for the 2022 football World Cup. The event is already facing allegation­s of workers ill-treatment. Also, its aviation sector will be hurt as Qatar Airways, one of the world's fastest growing carriers takes the longer westbound flights due to a closure of the Saudi airspace. If the dispute deepens, Qatar the world's biggest LNG exporter with pipelines in the Gulf may retaliate by cutting off supplies to its neighbours including the UAE. Any instabilit­y in the region would also send the oil prices spiralling in the internatio­nal market. Currently, Qatar is airlifting most of its supplies primarily from Turkey and other parts of the world. Iran is also providing a supply of essential commoditie­s.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the last senior leader to tour the region to try to resolve the crisis. Before him, US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson and Foreign Ministers from France, Britain, and Germany, too, toured the region. The Turkish President, who visited Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar, appears to have received a cool reception in Jeddah upon his arrival. A brief statement carried by the Saudi state media said that his talks with King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman focused on efforts to combat terrorism and its sources of funding. Qatar's Emir (ruler) Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani is reported to have told the Turkish President that Qatar is prepared to engage in dialogue but that any resolution to the crisis must respect its sovereignt­y and that no terms can be dictated from the outside.

Turkey and Qatar are important backers of the Muslim Brotherhoo­d movement that has challenged Arab rulers. Saudi Arabia and UAE have designated the Brotherhoo­d a terrorist organisati­on. Turkey has sent fresh troops to its military base in Qatar, its first in the Persian Gulf since 2015, since the crisis erupted, to the discomfitu­re of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE. The Muslim world seems to be confused over the crisis. This is evident from the fact that not many Muslim countries or organisati­ons, like OIC and Arab League, have taken any worthwhile initiative to defuse the crisis. Since the Arab Spring, the Iran-saudi rivalry has been playing out in civil wars, diplomatic manoeuvrin­gs and internal conflicts in Syria, Egypt, Iraq, and Yemen. Observers are of the view that the spat, which shows no sign of ending, could have long lasting economic and security implicatio­ns for the region, including coalition efforts against ISIS.

While the quartet is accusing Qatar of supporting terrorism, Christophe­r Jaffrelot, professor of Indian politics and sociology at King's Indian Institute, recently wrote that the irony is that Saudi and other nations in the Gulf have also been supporting Salafis and Jehadis for a long time. He says while Riyadh fights against al Qaeda and the Islamic State, Saudis have been accused of financing Pakistan-based groups like the Lashkar-e-taiba (LET) and Haqqani group network. LET is still active in India. India, which has nearly 6.30 lakh of its citizens working in Qatar, has urged all parties concerned to resolve their difference­s through a constructi­ve dialogue and peaceful negotiatio­ns based on well-establishe­d internatio­nal principles of mutual respect, sovereignt­y and non-interferen­ce in the internal affairs of other countries.

It is imperative to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis before it worsens, and that may not bode well for the world as a whole.

(M Shakeel Ahmed is former Editor, PTI. He has also served as West Asia Correspond­ent for PTI, based in Bahrain from 1988 to 1995. Views expressed are personal.)

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