Country as a whole likely to receive normal monsoon: IMD

NEW DELHI: The entire country is likely to get normal monsoon this year, except the east and northeast India, which is expected to witness “below normal” rainfall, the Met department said on Wednesday. With this announcement, the MET has kept its prediction of “normal” monsoon unchanged in its second stage longrange forecast.

The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 101 percent of its Long Period Average (LPA) during July, and 94 percent of LPA during August - both with a model error of plus or minus 9 percent.

Notably, anything between 90-96 percent of the LPA is considered as “below normal while rainfall in the range of 96-104 percent of the LPA is considered “normal”.

Also, rainfall is considered as “deficient” if it ranges below 90 percent of the LPA and “above normal” if it falls between 104 to 110 percent of the LPA.

Above 110 percent of the LPA is considered as “excess” rainfall.

“Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2018 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be normal (96 to 104 percent of LPA). Quantitatively, the monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 97 percent of the LPA with a model error of plus or minus 4 percent,” the IMD said.

There is also a 43 percent probability of normal monsoon, it added.

On the progress of the monsoon, it said that the conditions are favourable for its further advancement into some parts of north-eastern states during next 48 hours.

It added that the conditions are also likely to become favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into some more parts of south peninsula around June 3.

“Rainfall activity is likely to increase over parts of Maharashtra and Goa states from June 6,” the IMD said.

Importantly, in the first long-range forecast last month, the IMD had predicted that the country is likely to get 97 percent of the LPA (normal monsoon) with an error margin of plus or minus five percent.

“Region-wise, the seasonal rainfall is likely to be 100 percent of LPA over northwest India (comprising states of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi) 99 percent of LPA over Central India, 95 percent of LPA over South Peninsula and 93 percent of LPA over east and northeast India (West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and the northeastern states) all with a model error of plus or minus 8 percent,” it added.