Pak says COVID-19 to take heavy toll on economy, fears 18.5 mn job losses
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has estimated that up to 18.5 mil
lion people in the country could lose their jobs and the economy will sustain a loss of nearly Rs 2.5 trillion in three months due to the Coronavirus pandemic, according to a media report on Friday.
The assessment is based on
limited, moderate and complete lockdown, The Express Tribune reported.
The country seems to have passed the limited level and is at the moderate phase in terms of restrictions on movement and is inching towards complete restrictions, the report said.
The estimates of loss emerged during an inter-ministerial meeting held at the Ministry of Planning on Thursday, where official discussed the preliminary estimates based on information received from various government entities and initial research conducted by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
The Ministry of Planning has assessed losses at Rs 1.2 trillion in limited lockdown scenario, Rs 1.96 trillion in moderate and Rs 2.5 trillion in case of complete restrictions on movement, which symbolises a curfew-like situation.
The government has assessed the losses on the basis of the impact of the restrictions -- imposed to stop COVID-19 from spreading -- on business, tax revenue, international trade and cost of unemployment for three months.
The initial official estimates are higher than the first independent assessment by two former government functionaries, Dr Hafiz Pasha and Shahid Kardar, who put the losses in the range of Rs 891 billion to Rs 1.6 trillion in case of less to severe shocks.
Meanwhile, Pakistan's Coronavirus cases crossed 2,400 on Friday as the authorities struggled to stop big congregational gatherings despite government's notification limiting upto five the number of people attending such prayers to curb the spread of the deadly disease.