GEARING UP FOR SUMMER
With 40 days of lockdown, there are several takeaways for the country regarding Covid-19. While the total figures may have hit 40,000, India stands at a relatively better position. Our economy has taken a hit but the lockdown has flattened the transmission curve compared to other nations. A recovery rate (~27 per cent) nearly nine times the mortality rate (~3.3 per cent) in the country is definitely a positive sign. Even the daily testing figures ramped up, crossing 70,000 on May 1 from a meagre figure of around 4,000 a month back (on April 1). In the 40 days, number of testing laboratories have risen from 20-30 to 419 with about 100 of those in the private sector. A dynamic testing strategy by the Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR), albeit criticised for under-testing, has gradually strengthened its capacity. The aim ahead is to reach 1-1.2 lakh tests per day. With the aforementioned statistics, India enters the third phase of lockdown till May
17. There can be no denying that without a lockdown of this sort, the reality would have been catastrophic. The fact that cases have incessantly risen despite a national lockdown in place throws light on the way ahead. The third phase of lockdown may have come with versatile strategies for a calibrated exit but those are mainly to jumpstart the halted economy. Relaxations under the third phase simply denote the country’s need to resume economic activity while minimising the risk of a second wave. Yet, one cannot rule out the possibility of further rise. The green zones of today might turn red if cases are reported while the orange and red zones may turn green on account of complete recovery in those. The government has different types of data to assess the spread. In essence, 7 states have recorded around 80 per cent of cases while less than half of the total districts are green zones. Such sort of data is also crucial to draw out future action plans on national and state levels. While the Ministry of Home Affairs has orchestrated a wide plan to accommodate all districts as per their colour code, it must boil down to states to construct a more-precise map of disease spread. And, that map will be dynamic since people will recover, while more could fall ill. It exhibits a pendulum motion. People recovering while more falling ill. And, it necessitates a strong trace, test and treat regime much along the lines of South Korea.
By the end of the third phase, India would have observed around 8 weeks of lockdown. That period should be enough to prepare a country’s health infrastructure to manage the crisis. While the race for the vaccine will continue, our primary focus should be to test and treat people. From whatever we have gathered in the past month and a half, in addition to global experience, every resident would have to be extracautious. A post-lockdown society is not a Covid-free society by any means. It is simply a society that must practice preventive measures as a cardinal principle. Eradicating the virus from society will take time and hence, the summer will indeed be a tussle to co-exist with the threat looming large. Nations across the globe are opening up their economies with this very thought in the head. The coming two weeks will also show if the calibrated exit model based on colourcoded zones that the government has adopted is optimum or not. If it proves to be a viable strategy, more relaxations would follow. But with masks and social distancing being a part of our lives, we ought to prepare ourselves for an unprecedented summer altogether. While the health sector has to be prepared to handle the infection, the onus of our health shifts back on us the minute lockdown ends.