Scientists use weather forecasting technique to predict COVID-19 spread

LONDON: Scientists have employed methods normally used to forecast weather to predict how rapidly COVID19 could spread in different countries as lockdown is eased, as well as assess the effectiveness of measures put in place.

An international team, including meteorologists from the University of Reading in the UK, applied data assimilation, a technique that combines multiple sources of information to estimate how a situation will develop over time, to the pandemic.

The study, submitted to the journal Foundations of Data Science, suggests it is possible to make reasonably accurate predictions of how easing measures might affect the spread of the virus up to two weeks in advance.

This technique is usually used to pair computer simulations with real weather observations to forecast future weather, the researchers said. "A key result from this work is that we can estimate accurately how the reproductive (R) number varies in time in response to implementing or loosing up various mitigation measures," said Professor Geir Evensen, from the NORCE: Norwegian Research Centre, who led the study.

R number is the number of people a person with COVID19 is likely to infect.