WHERE THEY STOOD

BJP’s anti-Tamil perception impacted its vote share in 2019

17.69

3.66 3.67 3.9 5.36 12.61

Tamil Nadu factoids

33.52 19.59

Number of Constituencies

Total number of voters

Male voters

Female voters

Young voters (aged between 20 & 29)

BJP attracting a large following is just a social media phenomenon. “On the ground, the fight continues to be between AIADMK and DMK,” said T.K. Ramachandran, head of AIADMK’s IT wing. He is also the party’s Coimbatore candidate fighting Annamalai in this election.

When this writer met him, he was campaigning at Coimbatore constituency’s Senjerimalai area. “Look at the people assembled here,” he said, driving around in his campaign vehicle. “Do they look like they are part of social media?”

He is confident of AIADMK doing well as people are angry with DMK because of inflation. He also maintained that people are still angry with Modi. DMK, on the other hand, has been attacking BJP for working against the interest of the state. Fiscal devolution, release of flood relief, the Centre’s share in many centrally sponsored schemes are all issues the party highlights.

“BJP will make no impact because it does not understand Tamil Nadu. They have not put any effort to truly understand us,” said T.R.B. Rajaa, DMK leader and the state’s industry minister.

THE OUTCOME

Tamil Nadu has not witnessed such an electoral contest before. A strong three-cornered contest is new for the state. Added to this mix is Naam Thamilar Katchi, a growing party targeting the youth. The party can chip away votes from the established ones. Nonetheless, the electoral arithmetic, according to leading psephologists and political observers like Gurumurthy, favours DMK and it should ideally win most of the seats.

“The INDIA Alliance will sweep Tamil Nadu. The people of Tamil Nadu are smart, educated and politically wise to reject divisive politics,” said Rajaa.

INDIA is short for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, a multi-party alliance led by the Indian National Congress. AIADMK has taken a significant risk by deciding to go alone. It will be hoping to retain much of its vote share, but a sharp fall will weaken the party significantly.

As for BJP, Annamalai is confident of a strong showing. “I have been on the ground. I can feel the change. People want BJP in Tamil Nadu,” he told Mint during his campaign in Coimbatore.

Going forward, a sharp increase in its vote share will make BJP a strong force in state politics, irrespective of whether it manages to win a few seats. “It will establish the fact that DMK and the Dravidian parties are losing their grip over the Tamil electorate,” said Gurumurthy.

There’s a lot at stake.