BJP now becomes a truly national party
Two broad conclusions can be drawn from the results of the 2014 general election. First, that the Bharatiya Janata Party, till recently a party of north, central and western India, now has a presence all over the country. And second, that this is not just a miserable defeat for the Congress, but something akin to an existential crisis that could, if not properly managed, push it towards extinction very fast.
Winning in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat is not surprising for the BJP — it rules the states and its governments are quite popular. Vasundhara Raje, who was disliked by the electorate during the final years of her rule, came back to power with a bang in December and still enjoys goodwill; the other two are undisputed leaders in their respective states. Even winning big in Maharashtra is hardly a big story — the Congress- NCP government has been in power for 15 years and has come to be known as a byword of corruption and arrogance. The irrigation scam in which NCP leaders were named and the suicide of farmers in Vidarbha had angered voters and it was only a matter of time before the combine got a shock. The margin of victory is very impressive ( even in Mumbai the Congress- NCP has been wiped out) but not unexpected given that the BJP- Sena have ruled the state in the past.
But winning seats in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal indicates that the party has now made deep inroads in states that were closed to it. Both
A 272- plus presence in the Lok Sabha will give the BJP tremendous clout and power. It can push through any legislation it wants to, with virtually no Opp.
states have remained immune to the party’s brand of politics, preferring their own regional forces. The Congress had ceased to exist in both a long time ago and it was assumed that power would be shared between local groupings. That assumption has now been challenged. In Karnataka, where the BJP got thrown out in the last elections, its tieup with B. S. Yeddyurappa was supposed to be a strategically wrong move; yet, it has confounded all predictions and emerged as the single- largest victor.
Probably the most astonishing outcome of this election is in Assam, where the BJP has won handsomely. In 1999, the party won two seats in the state, but this time round the rhetoric against Bangladeshis ( read Muslims) obviously hit home and voters flocked to the BJP in large numbers. A presence in the Northeast is obviously a huge plus for the BJP as it can now use it as a base to spread through the region.
Barring Kerala, the last holdout, the BJP now has a foothold, however tenuous, in every state. This makes it the only national party in the Lok Sabha; the Congress, despite its 12 chief ministers, has drawn a blank this time round in several states. This has serious portents for the party in the next round of state elections, since it could end up shrinking dramatically over the next five years.
It is not just the numbers that should worry the Congress, though those are obviously important. It is the sheer disdain shown by the voters who were totally unimpressed by its vision, or lack of it. Put simply, the Congress, already reeling under perceptions of fostering inefficiency and corruption, showed no imagination or fresh ideas in trying to reach out to the voter. The Congress had a reasonably good story to tell, but it didn’t know how to convey it.
Moreover, it did not quite fathom the extent of the anger against the UPA. The social equity programmes and the landmark legislation it introduced did not amount to much when weighed against corrup- tion and sluggish economic growth. A Prime Minister who does not speak cannot stand up to a Prime Minister hopeful who not only speaks but also thunders, with all the attendant advantages of being an opponent. A 272- plus presence in the Lok Sabha will give the BJP tremendous clout and power. It can push through any legislation it wants to, with virtually no Opposition to block it. The Rajya Sabha will be another matter, but that too will be managed eventually. The BJP’s, or rather Narendra Modi’s, real challenge will be to manage expectations, since his frenzied supporters, whether big corporates or small farmers or urban professionals, will want results as soon as possible — no excuses will be accepted. Give me 60 months, he had said. He has now got them.