BIPOLAR ORDER

To ensure that the Muslim vote does not get divided among secular political forces, parties fighting against the BJP are forging new alliances as otherwise they may perish in the saffron wave

No doubt politics in India would now require to prominently revolve around the secular- communal divide more than ever, as most of the parties opposed to the ruling BJP can regain their political eminence only if they galvanise the support of Muslims and a few of the Hindu castes.

To ensure that the large base of Muslim votes does not get divided among the “secular political forces”, the time has come for such parties to forge new or otherwise considered impossible political alliances. And this has successfully been demonstrated in the byelections recently held in Bihar, where the RJD and the JD( U), led by arch- rivals Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar, came together and trounced the BJP by bagging six out of the 10 Assembly seats which went to polls in the state.

Sources in the RJD said, “Nitishji has positioned himself as an anti- thesis of Modi’s politics. But given the mandate, which Mr Modi got in the last Lok Sabha elections, he had no option but ally with us to make a formidable force to counter the communal politics of the BJP.” The move to come together has paid “great dividend” in the Assembly byelections and “we are confident that we would be able to stop Modi juggernaut in the 2015 Assembly elections too”, they said.

Keeping this in mind, Mr Lalu Yadav had made a call to Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and Mayawati’s BSP to come together in Uttar Pradesh to counter the BJP upsurge.

“The aim is to ensure that secular votes do not get divided and in such a situation the BJP will find it difficult to win seats,” a senior RJD functionary said.

Interestingly, Mr Mulayam Yadav echoed the sentiment expressed by the RJD chief, but Ms Mayawati shot down the proposal, saying: “It is just not possible.” Explaining the position taken by her, a BSP functionary said, “Our vote base is intact even though we could not win a single seat in the last Lok Sabha elections. Our vote is transferable, but not that of the SP. So why should we ally with the SP?”

In both UP and Bihar, though leaders have come together, the caste equations at the grassroots level have a lot of contradictions, which may not give the desired results, when the elections come for formation of the government. Sceptics believe that the success of the RJD- JD( U) in the recently- concluded Assembly bypoll should not be taken as a trend.

“This so because in byelections, people’s enthusiasm generally remains low for voting and this was demonstrated in Bihar. When the general elections took place, the voting percentage was more than 60 per cent, whereas in the byelections it was around 30 per cent. The party workers too do not participate actively, as it does not affect the government in the office,” they

It would not be a misplaced analogy if the country witnesses a repeat of what happened in the 1970s when almost all the existing political parties came together under the Janata Party umbrella and took on the Congress and defeated it decisively in the ’ 77 polls. To combat this force, the saffron party would need to re- strategise its moves.

said.

The success of the Congress in the recentlyconcluded Assembly byelections in Uttarakhand too can be analysed on the same yardstick, as in such elections people generally vote in favour of party in the government.

Now Assembly elections in three states — Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand — are scheduled to take place in a few months from now. Except for Haryana, in other two states politics is already bipolar as in Maharashtra, it is the BJP-Shiv Sena combine vs the Congress- NCP and in Jharkhand, it is JMM- Congress-RJD- JD(U) vs BJP.

In both the states, even during the Lok Sabha elections the same combinations fought the battle and the results did not favour the so- called secular forces. In Haryana, it appears that the upcoming Assembly elections are set to be trian- gular, as Haryana Janhit Party leader Kuldeep Bishnoi has parted ways with the BJP and is trying to stitch a new alliance with former Congress leader Venod Sharma’s newlyformed party. Sources in the BJP said, “This development may dent our support base among the non- Jat voters, but at the same time it may favour us by dividing the Congress’ votes.”

However, for Congress and other like- minded parties, including the SP, BSP, RJD, JD( U), TMC, NCP, NC, DMK and the Left, if they want to be a potent force to credibly challenge the BJP in any of the upcoming elections, either for Lok Sabha or assemblies, they need to come together and form an umbrella coalition.

Claiming that though currently there is not such thinking in the party, a senior Congress functionary maintained that more clarity would be there “once the results of the Assembly elections come out”. He said, “Definitely, we would require to re- orient our strategy, if loses the elections, as in all the three states either we are in power or part of the government. All options would be discussed only then after and re- alignment could be considered.” It would not be a misplaced analogy if the country witnesses a repeat of what had happened in 1970s when almost all the existing political parties came together under the Janata Party umbrella and took on the Congress and defeated it decisively in the 1977 general elections.

Moreover, given the momentum these political parties get after coming on a single platform, the BJP would need to re- strategise its political moves. Indications are already coming from the saffron party, with its leaders mostly harping on the development plank to neutralise either the communal or caste divide in the country. “The secret of our success in the recently- concluded Lok Sabha election lies with blurring of the caste divide. Had it not happened, at least in UP and Bihar, Muslim votes, combined with one or two Hindu castes, would have doomed our fortunes. Our opponents tried their best to polarise the elections, but our leaders, particularly Narendra Modi, stuck to the development plank, which paid rich electoral success in UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and other western states, barring Kerala,” a BJP leader said.