The Bharat challenge

The hangover of the opinion and exit polls is over. The real picture has emerged and yet the riddle is not resolved. Psychologists say that egos don’t follow any logic or pattern. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are so secretive that they control even their body language and facial expressions. Therefore, the self- styled experts who interpret complex events by the twinkles in the eyes or wrinkles on the face are also flummoxed.

The electronic and print media, which had been inflamed by a massive and nauseating propaganda, is now coming to terms with the reality. But they too have no clue as to how Uddhav Thackeray will deal with the most challenging crisis of his political career. Nor can they penetrate through the iron curtain around Mr Modi and Mr Shah. Mr Modi loves to keep the media guessing and enjoys their confusion and discomfiture. He gives speeches, not interviews; he does not let his ministers or party leaders talk to the press, attend parties or even be present in a gathering where the media is likely to be present. His disdain for journalists and also intellectuals is so deep that even if they crawl, instead of bending, he will not move, physically or emotionally.

It is because of this robotic style of Mr Modi and Mr Shah that the riddle of Maharashtra politics has become even more enigmatic. Politics in India and surely of Maharashtra may have had its intrigues and skulduggery, but it had a tremendous carefree atmosphere. Late- night dinners with or without cocktails, not only with journalists, but also with various socio- cultural organisations, NGOs and cross- party leaders has been a routine cultural pastime, blended with politics.

But all that has disappeared rather abruptly, leaving mediapersons as well as those directly involved in politics to go by speculation, illinformed logic, rumours and grapevine gossip. However, there is something called basic knowledge of the socio- political process and experience which cannot vanish in thin air just because Mr Modi wishes it that way. Therefore, we can speculate on the future course of politics that will shape Maharashtra in the overall Indian context.

At the outset, it should be noted that some of the familiar parameters have changed. For instance, it was generally believed that being Maratha is necessary for becoming chief minister. Though this was not always true ( for instance, Vasantrao Naik was Vanzari and Manohar Joshi a Brahmin), it definitely was a qualification. From Yashwantrao Chavan to Prithviraj Chavan and from Shankarrao Chavan to Vilasrao Deshmukh, all were Marathas. Those believed to be in the chief ministerial race in the BJP are mainly Brahmins — Devendra Fadanvis and Nitin Gadkari. Mr Modi, of course, can spring a surprise, but the fact is that in the Congress scheme of things, a Brahmin could not even think of becoming chief minister. Even the number of Brahmin ministers was negligible.

If this sounds like a casteist statement, let it be clarified that more than caste, the social composition and political base of that community used to be taken into account. The Marathas, including Kunbis, constitute 35 per cent of the state’s population. Brahmins are just around four per cent. The Congress icons have been Mahatma Phule ( OBC, of Mali caste) and Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar ( Dalit, belonging to Mahar community). The social reformer ruler of Kolhapur state, before Independence, was Shahu Maharaj ( Maratha). Yashwantrao Chavan, the first chief minister of Maharashtra, introduced “inclusive politics” and involved various social groups, including Brahmins and dalits, Vanzaris and Malis, Muslims and Christians.

The RSS tried to transform its Brahminical face when Balasaheb Deoras was Sarsanghachalak, and urged the organisation to accommodate OBCs. But at the core, the RSS and, therefore, the BJP remained Brahminical in its ethos. However, Gopinath Munde, Eknath Khadse, Vinod Tawde and some others could make a mark because of Deoras’ guidelines. The fact that Pankaja Munde ( OBC) could announce her candidature for the top job shows that some social engineering has taken place over the last two decades. But accommodating Muslims or Christians still would not go well with the rank and file, notwithstanding the fact that two Muslims were spokespersons of the party.

Maharashtra, despite being over 40 per cent urban, is politically and psychologically still rural. The sugarcane and cotton crop economy, droughts and famines, horticulture and onions define the rural- political landscape. Though the Mahayuti led by the BJP

Maharashtra is politically and psychologically rural. Shiv Sena is essentially a reflection of urban discontent, and the BJP has grown in agitation — land protest politics — that is also urban.

does have Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana and Dhangars ( shepherds) organisation with it, the party has no agricultural programme or vision or followers within.

The term “Congress System” was coined by the renowned political theorist, Prof Rajani Kothari, in the late Sixties. That system was evolved and perfected in Maharashtra, more than in other parts of India. That system has deep roots in rural Maharashtra. Urban Maharashtra, particularly the white collar middle class, is not part of that system. It is in that social region that the BJP flourished. It is in that region that the lumpen class came into the mainstream of politics, and Shiv Sena was born and grew. The BJPSS Yuti was an alliance of these two social forces, generally disconnected from the rural life. That life was shaped by Gandhiji before Independence as a vast number of cadre came from that rural area. The second phase of rural Maharashtra was shaped by the cooperative movement.

This is the most crucial connectivity for politics in India. The BJP has grown in agitation, a land protest politics, and that too is essentially urban. The Shiv Sena, whether it joins the government or not, too is essentially a reflection of urban discontent. Over the years, both the parties have created some outfits in the rural areas, but their reflex actions have little relevance with “Bharat”!

It will be a constant contradiction in the rural belt as the rural banks, crop marketing, educational institutions and of course zila parishads and gram panchayats will be controlled by the “Congress System”, on which the BJP will try to impose its new ethos. It is that contradiction which will lead to a major disconnect and can prove to be the nemesis of the BJP government. The writer is a journalist and political commentator