The enemy within
Our biggest enemy lies within us. Smug as we are with the fact that we remain one of the fastest growing economies ( though the new GDP series is extremely dodgy), we are oblivious to structural problems that continue to bedevil us. In the past two years, there isn’t a single tangible transformative idea the BJP has come up with. Not one killer application that could breathe life into a supine economy. Governed by incrementalism, blinded by its mandate based on the idea of majoritarianism and impervious to an ever- decelerating economy’s varied imponderables, the BJP has at no stage in these two years shown any stomach for reform. One of India’s foremost minds on foreign trade, at a gathering on the Trans- Pacific Partnership and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreements recently, captured this credo, not sparing any words for the current regime, saying: India is happy merely having a seat on the high table, but it has to remember to plan, articulate and assert itself, which it sadly doesn’t. Worse still, the BJP seems completely besotted with its idea of “vikaswad” as it fulminates over the “virodhwad” ( obstructionism) of the Congress. The Congress, meanwhile, very much like Macbeth, cannot wash the taint of corruption and remains thoroughly discredited. However, the BJP- manufactured anger against the dynasty remains an issue the Grand Old Party must deal with, as it goes beyond the immediate members of the dynasty and attempts a dangerous revision of Nehru. The BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi can claim they have done wonderfully well in the last 24 months, but the reality unfortunately doesn’t mirror that. Agreed that corruption has gone off the radar and isn’t part of the subconscious, there hasn’t been a single conviction in the last two years. No dramatic arrests or trials that convicted the corrupt. Bharat Parashar’s CBI trial court has come closest when it convicted the Rungta brothers in the monumental coal scam, but even they are out on bail. The way the AgustaWestland scam probe has been allowed to drag and drift is another example. The CBI filed its PE in March 2013 soon after Italy’s carabinieri filed its comprehensive investigation report. Agreed that till May 2014, the UPA was in power, what has the BJP done since? Every nuance and detail has been tracked in minutiae by the Italian police probe, including the money trail and recipients of the payoffs, but nothing was done for over three years.
Railways, highways, coal and power are showing an uptick due to the commitment of those helming these ministries. LED, Pehal, Jan Dhan and DBT are excellent administrative reforms, but there is a blue sky available for the BJP, and it has shown no appetite for dramatic and radical change. While it is true that untangling the knots left behind by the UPA has taken its time, but equally, frequent bureaucratic shuffles and maltreatment of top officers hasn’t helped in altering sentiments and policy paralysis may well have been replaced by a bureaucratic paralysis. The spectre of 5Cs — CAG, CVC, CIC, CBI and the courts — continues to haunt the “steel frame”. It is well known that Nitin Gadkari has gone beyond the pale of the IAS ( his PS and some other officers are not from the service), and this enables him to function with greater alacrity. On the whole, the bureaucracy is a bit rebellious at the way it is being asked to come to speed, and is even impeding progress. Yes, the BJP has bitten the bullet on the politically-sensitive decontrol of diesel, linking it to global crude prices, but even the somnolent UPA, realising the petro-diesel price differential was creating havoc with the auto economy, had started that process by raising diesel prices by 50 paise per month to bridge the humungous deficit.
Yes, the long- pending insurance bill ramping FDI from 26 per cent to 49 per cent has finally fructified, and other FDI reforms taken place, but the necessary impetus for domestic consumption has not come about despite global crude prices softening for 18 months. FDI inflows are once again showing an uptrend. Infra, social sector and rural spending is up as two successive drought years have left Bharat in serious distress. Once rural spending gets a kickstart with these measures, hopefully on the back of a good monsoon, the economy may well move to the next level of competence.
Pinpricks like continuing tax terrorism, internecine feuding with the RBI governor, zero job growth, weak private investment, obsession with legislation in the face of rampant tyranny of numbers
Policy paralysis may well have been replaced by a bureaucratic paralysis. The spectre of 5Cs — CAG, CVC, CIC, CBI and the courts — continues to haunt the ‘ steel frame’
in the Upper House, helplessness in reining in the lunatic fringe, rising intolerance and inability to bring the Opposition on board have proved dampeners which have caught everyone’s attention. No movement forward on black money, repeated attempts at tax amnesty schemes despite the Supreme Court ruling against continuing such adventures and a general lassitude on big- ticket reforms is also not helping. The biggest downer is the continuing push of the Hindutva agenda, using the power of majoritarianism. The PM must realise that India is made up of different people, from different strata and different regions. The vast majority of these are based at the bottom of the pyramid, where everyone’s path crosses in a pool of desperation. Mr Modi is aware that the people voted overwhelmingly for him, not for the BJP. It is incumbent on him to use the next three years to change these perceptions and take India not just to the high table, but to make a meaningful contribution there. A new economic paradigm, if at all the BJP has one, must be unveiled now for India to leapfrog. It is essential that the BJP provides India with its economic vision, one that is far removed from 10 years of quasi- socialism and cronyism. Unfortunately, though, the BJP has just revived old UPA schemes by giving them new names and carried on as if it is business as usual. A new idea and idiom for India is yet to materialise.
It has to show intent more than anything else and not allow things to drift. Two years is a long time in the history and journey of a government. In Mr Modi’s case, much more was expected and much less has been delivered.