Testing the rule of law in the South China Sea

How China reacts to the sweeping legal defeat over its claims to the South China Sea will tell the world a lot about its approach to international law, the use of its enormous power, and its global ambitions. So far, the signs are troubling. Beijing has defiantly rejected an international arbitration court’s jurisdiction over a case brought by the Philippines and insisted it will not accept Tuesday’s pathbreaking judgment.

The unanimous ruling, by a five- judge tribunal in The Hague, was more favourable toward the Philippines and broader in scope than experts had predicted. It said that under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, China had no legal basis to claim historic rights over most of the waterway, which is rich in resources and carries $ 5 trillion in annual trade.

The panel also faulted China for its aggressive attempts to establish sovereignty by shipping tonnes of dirt to transform small reefs and rocks into artificial islands with airstrips and other military structures. China’s neighbours fear that it intends to use these outposts to restrict navigation and the rights of others to fish and explore for oil and gas…

The Law of the Sea treaty sets rules for establishing zones of control over the oceans based on distances to coastlines...

There are serious concerns about what will happen next. The tribunal has no authority to enforce its ruling, and China, which boycotted the legal process, threatens to use force to protect the maritime interests the court has now declared illegal.

What this means in practice is not clear. Given China’s stake in peaceful trade with the rest of the world, it would be foolish for President Xi Jinping to take provocative actions that could inflame regional tensions and conceivably lead to a military confrontation with its neighbours or the US…