A barrage of sentiment? It is not an effective or a just way
Blocking Indus waters to Pakistan is impractical and will hurt India
The 1960 Indus treaty has allocated rights of development on three eastern tributaries ( Sutlej, Beas & Ravi) to India, and we have exhausted that entitlement almost fully. The treaty gave Pakistan dominant right of development of the three western tributaries ( Chenab, Jhelum and Indus), India has limitations about water use ( quantity and manner) in case of these rivers. India has not yet exhausted the entitlement in this case.
The September 26 meeting called by Prime Minister Narendra Modi took a number of decisions, including expediting projects on these western rivers, setting up an inter- ministerial task force to achieve it, restarting work on Tulbul navigation project and also, according to reports, suspending the meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission indefinitely. 56 years and 112 meetings after signing of the treaty, this is the first time when such a step has been taken.
If this is beginning of an exercise to abrogate or suspend the Indus Treaty, we should remember it has no exit clause. Hence, under the Vienna Convention ( 1969) on such treaties, the option of walking away from the treaty is almost non- existent.
In the meantime, there has been a lot of talk about stopping the water flow to Pakistan and that water and blood cannot flow together. Blood should not flow under any circumstances, but can we stop flow of water to Pakistan? We must remember that we are talking about stopping the flow of several massive rivers, each with millions of cubic meters of water ( and so much more that flows with it) on a daily basis on average, not turning off a tap or a pipeline. We do not have the infrastructure to either store or divert so much water. Such infrastructure needs a lot of studies, planning and years of work. Immediately, we can put up pumps to lift water from these rivers for use within Jammu & Kashmir and may be we could divert some to the nearest eastern river. But that would be of limited quantity. We have hydropower projects on both the Chenab and Indus, but these have limited storage capacity.
On the question of building more projects on the western rivers, this involves major structural interventions involving dams, deforestation, displacement, mining, building of roads, townships, tunnels, transmission lines, generation of millions cubic meters of muck, serious adverse impacts on landscape, rivers, biodiversity, climate and life and livelihoods of lakhs of people. All this in an area that suffers from multiple vulnerabilities including earthquakes, erosion, landslides, avalanches, floods, including GLOFs ( Glacier Lake Outburst Flood).
While climate change is already worsening these vulnerabilities, these major interventions will make it much worse. We have already seen a trailer of the possible consequences in the J& K flood disaster of September 2014.
Are we asking the already long suffering people of J& K to suffer further? There will also be a lot more collateral damage. All this may sound like the ranting of a weak heart. Far from it. One is reminded what Winston Churchill, known more for his hawkish views on war, said: “The day may dawn when fair play, love for one’s fellow men, respect for justice and freedom, will enable tormented generations to march forth serene and triumphant from the hideous epoch in which we have to dwell. Meanwhile, never flinch, never weary, never despair.”
There can be no two opinions that the terrorism originating from Pakistan soil needs to end. But equally clearly, there should be no doubt that using rivers, environment and the people of J& K will be neither effective nor just. We are talking about stopping the flow of rivers, each with millions of cubic meters of water on a daily basis, not turning off a tap or a pipeline. We do not have the infrastructure to either store or divert so much water.