Reprieve for Nawaz: Was a deal struck?

Will PM Nawaz Sharif pay the price for his hubris, refusing to heed the signals from a military that has ratcheted up its anti-India policy, and is intent on securing Afghanistan under the benign eye of its new patrons, Beijing and Moscow?

When Nawaz Sharif was freed from Adiala Jail in December 2000 and flew to the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah as part of a deal forged with Pakistan’s Saudi patrons, he had spent 14 months in jail after he was ousted from power by then military chief Gen. Pervez Musharraf.

Mr Sharif was clear about one thing. He was never going back to jail again.

On Thursday, as his countrymen watched, Pakistan’s Supreme Court delivered a judgment on the hot button Panama Papers case that stopped just short of declaring Prime Minister Sharif guilty of corruption; a sentence that would have forced him out of office and could have seen another prolonged stint at Adiala.

Instead, a joint investigation team that must deliver a verdict in 60 days has been set up, with the Prime Minister required to appear in court every time he is summoned. To make the humiliation complete, both the InterServices Intelligence and Military Intelligence will be part of the probe team. It is their presence that says more about the real intent of the institutions ranged against the Nawaz Sharif government, and the rest of the political class who are complicit in ousting the Sharif dispensation, than anything that has led to this familiar moment in Pakistan’s tortured history.

The uncanny parallel to the manner in which every “elected” leader from Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto to his daughter Benazir and Mr Sharif — barring Asif Ali Zardari — has exited office, is lost on no one.

It begins with an “expose” that spills dirty little secrets, followed by a carefully calibrated movement that calls the credibility of the politician into question as the country grinds to a halt, whipped into a frenzy of street protests and name-calling, and in today’s scenario, news anchors baying for blood.

The question, as the countdown begins to yet another ugly standoff between an elected Prime Minister and the mobocracy fronted by the military’s chosen one, cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan and his Tehreek-iInsaf party — once again — to nail the Pakistani PM, is whether Mr Sharif will pay the price for his hubris, refusing to heed the signals from a military that has ratcheted up its anti-India policy, and is intent on securing Afghanistan under the benign eye of its new patrons, Beijing, and yes, Moscow. The military, despite Washington’s armtwisting on aid, will allow no

one, not America’s new President Donald Trump, not his Afghan war veteran and national security adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, to call back the dogs.

In retrospect, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose Nawaz Sharif outreach had doomed the Pakistani leader, should wonder whether he had set the ball rolling. Far more politic perhaps to have emulated predecessor Atal Behari Vajpayee, if not Dr Manmohan Singh, in keeping backchannel talks going rather than the public bonhomie that brought on the Pakistan Army’s wrath in Pathankot, Uri and now Jammu and Kashmir, where for the first time the polls that New Delhi says vindicates its position on J&K being an indisputable part of the union have been marred by violence, giving the Pakistani establishment the perfect stick to beat India with.

This is Pakistan, smoke and mirrors at its best, and more so when it involves a military that has understood the power of moving its pawns across the political chessboard, without — as in the past — openly having done so, in keeping with its self-ascribed role as guardians of the nation, keepers of the faith.

The Panama Papers, that were leaked in April last year, made available by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), are damning as they breathe new life into corruption allegations that have dogged the wealthy Sharifs, who went from running a small Lahore foundry to becoming the richest family in the country with business interests spanning Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Britain. The documents list eight offshore companies linked to the Sharif family, with the NextGen Sharifs Maryam, Hassan and Hussain named as “owners”, or having “the right to authorise transactions for several companies”.

As early as April 2016, Mr Sharif set out to vigorously defend his family’s business interests by ascribing the cash in offshore tax havens to business deals with Saudi and Qatari royals, while calling for a judicial commission to clear his name.

Pictures of the family celebrating after Thursday’s order by Pakistan’s Supreme Court and Mr Sharif’s heir apparent Maryam’s Facebook posts and tweets send out the message that the family believes it has won the first round. But have they?

The Sharifs are taking comfort in the split verdict by the five-member bench that keeps their dignity and reputation intact. Could it be that a deal has been struck? In personally clearing the appointment of Gen. Raheel Sharif (Retd) to take over the 39-nation military alliance led by Saudi Arabia, a Muslim Nato, against the wishes of his own party, the Opposition and elements in the military, did the PM deliberately bring the Saudis into play, as an exit strategy if he needs one again?

The JIT, many say, is simply for public consumption, as Nawaz Sharif, using his poor health as an excuse, stands down and makes way for his successor, Maryam.

Author Ayesha Siddiqa, in her book Military Inc: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy, tells an apocryphal story of how the military deals with its own.

“In the case of resentment building up, some senior officers could conspire to manipulate the system to push the head of the organisation out through challenging his credibility and legitimacy…” The little known Brig. F.B. Ali (Retd) had forced then Army chief Yahya Khan to transfer power to Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, President Zia-ul Haq died in an aircrash in August 1988, and German author Hein Kiessling says that in August 2007, “the resignation was forcibly extracted, through putting Musharraf under a brief, forced detention by the new Army chief Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, that was never publicly reported...”

If Pervez Musharraf couldn’t stand up to his own generals, what chance does Nawaz Sharif have?