CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER LURKS

Any US-North Korea conflict will trigger nuclear war, to have untold economic impact, say analysts

Washington, Aug. 11: Any new military conflict with North Korea would likely escalate quickly to the use of nuclear weapons bringing catastrophic casualties not seen since World War Two and an untold economic impact worldwide, former US defence officials and experts say.

Philip Yun, a Korea expert who was an adviser under President Bill Clinton, said the risks were exacerbated by the “credibility problem” President Donald Trump has acquired due to his frequent off-the-cuff remarks. “In nuclear deterrence, credibility is everything and there’s a situation that if no one takes you seriously, you have to do something to make sure you are taken seriously, and that’s where the miscalculation can happen.”

Yun added the catastrophe would not just be human. “If we had a war, think about what it means. You are talking South Korea, the 11th largest economy in the world, Japan, the third largest economy, and you are talking about ground troops on the Korean peninsula. Donald Trump’s agenda would be consumed by this. Nothing else would get done. It’s against his interest and it’s not really an option.”

Even a conventional clash could cause catastrophic casualties given the thousands of North Korean artillery pieces ranged along the border, at least 1,000 of which are capable of reaching densely populated Seoul.

David Shear, who served as the defence official under former President Barack Obama, said, “I take projections of casualties of thousands to tens of thousands quite seriously and that’s just in South Korea — it’s possible North Korea could attack Japan as well.”

The real danger of preemptive US strikes against the North’s weapons sites would be that Pyongyang might resort to using its chemical and biological weapons and ultimately its nuclear arsenal.