Europe’s biggest Brexit fear? That Britain will flourish outside EU...

What do funding — that an important E u r o p e a n s net- payer country like r e a l l y Britain should want to leave. think about It is also a political regret Brexit? Do they on the part of countries such secretly admire our unexpected as Germany, the Netherlands decision to walk away and the Nordics, which from all those pesky regulations shared some of our approach and sub- committees? Or but were happy to allow us to are our former “European take a front- of- house role in friends” relieved the arrogant, thwarting the more extreme entitled Brits are leaving plans for integration. them alone? As the unofficial leader of

The official response of the the non- Eurozone countries, European political class is Britain was able to protect one of regret combined with the interests of the mainly studied indifference and a smaller countries not in the determination not to let Euro, which may now be Brexit weaken the project. more vulnerable.

That, broadly, seems to be There is, moreover, the genuine the unofficial response too. sadness of friends and The EU, after a couple of admirers of Britain who really decades of declining popularity will miss us. I have found and a rising populist challenge, this on visits to both the has actually seen a Netherlands and Sweden small up- tick in popularity since the Brexit vote. since Brexit, according to the The most moving and, to Eurobarometer polling the British ego, most flattering organisation. expression of regret I

Trust in the EU stands at 42 have received came from a per cent, ten points up since Swedish friend who wrote 2015 and the highest level this a few days after the referendum: since 2010. A majority of “We Swedes think Europeans ( 56 per cent) are of you British as our kin folk. now optimistic about the We admire you and emulate future of the EU, with the you — you are people we biggest increases in France, have learnt so much from… Denmark and Portugal. The Brexit, to us, is rather like a wagons are circling in the family, where the eldest son face of a threat. goes off to university — and

Not even the EU populist the little ones still at home parties are talking much are left wondering how the about Brexit or recommending family will change, and what their countries emulate their admired big brother us — at least not yet. will be up to.’

Marine Le Pen’s Front But from my unscientific National has pulled back sample of friends and journalists from its previous commitment across several large to leave the euro. and small EU states that Anyone foolish enough to warm response is the exception. vote for Brexit in the hope The regret in most countries that it might shake up the EU is combined with bafflement, and set it on a different irritation and anger. course has, so far, been Progressive Germans are revealed as a hopeless idealist. among the most offended by In neither the French nor Brexit as, more than most the German national elections Europeans, they have transferred last year did Brexit feelings of national attract much attention. pride from Germany to the Nevertheless, the regret at EU. Unsurprisingly, there Brexit is genuine enough in has been a great deal of attention many places. It has several on the hate crime layers. It is a self- interested “spike” after the Brexit vote, regret for the status of the EU especially in the east itself and an acknowledgement European media. that it is a blow to the One might even detect a club’s prestige — and its return of the Anglophobia of the imperial era with its stress on English or British hypocrisy: the domineering bully of a country congratulating itself on its gentlemanly liberalism.

In some cases Anglophobia emerged almost overnight after Brexit as the flipside of a jilted Anglophilia.

But more often expressed is the less rancorous, and largely justified belief, that we Brits simply never “got” the European project and it may be best for everyone concerned if we have a close relationship on the outside. Europe is a system of power and an economic mechanism but it is also a secular religion and the British have always been agnostics ( we are now full- blown atheists).

For Britain the EU has been a cost- benefit calculation and, as a result of our different history and interests, we have never felt the emotional commitment to the EU that has come naturally to continental politicians and voters. As Angela Merkel said to David Cameron at a bilateral meeting in Berlin in 2012: ‘ But your vision of the EU is so cold, David.’

The lack of much regret or sympathy across the former communist countries of central and eastern Europe is perhaps the most surprising aspect of the response.

After all, these are the countries with the strongest suspicion of interference from Brussels or Berlin, as we saw in the refugee crisis.

And, notwithstanding our Yalta betrayal, Britain has generally been held in high esteem both for leading the drive to bring these countries into the EU and then for opening our labour market, and country, to them earlier than any other big EU state.

It is a measure of Britain’s strategic failure to shape and lead an “outer ring” for countries more concerned about national sovereignty that our leaving has caused so little concern on Europe’s eastern flank. Indeed it has not escaped notice there that we are leaving the EU precisely because they have joined it, bringing new waves of immigration and higher net payments.

A Romanian friend says that the view in his country is actually a complicated mixture of admiration and resentment, a bit like our own historic view of the US.

Still, the British decision to end freedom of movement is being taken rather personally in eastern Europe — despite the largely happy experience of eastern Europeans in this country — and we should not expect any quarter in the Brexit negotiations from the Visegrád countries.

The final word should go to my friend Jochen Buchsteiner of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Like most reasonable Germans, he is saddened by our exit and thinks it unnecessary given the “semi- detached” status we already enjoyed. “Brexit does matter and it will weaken Britain, it will weaken the European Union and it will weaken Germany and make it harder to resist an eventual transfer union most Germans don’t want.”

But, he says, there is also a fear stalking the corridors of power in Germany and elsewhere. What if we flourish outside the EU?

The Swedish politician I quoted told me that the editor of a top Swedish newspaper had said to her that if in five to ten years’ time Britain is doing fine, Sweden will probably leave, too.

The EU will become the eurozone plus an outer ring of associated countries.

Maybe Britain is the canary in the mine, says Buchsteiner. “You have often been right in the past from Henry VIII to the decision to challenge Hitler. Perhaps, once again, you are seeing the future more clearly.”

As the unofficial leader of the non- Eurozone countries, Britain was able to protect the interests of the mainly smaller countries not in the Euro, which may now be more vulnerable. There is, moreover, the genuine sadness of friends and admirers of Britain who really will miss us...

By arrangement with the Spectator