Projected loss in MP, Rajasthan alarms BJP

Saffron party’s popularity slips in major states, says survey

After its failure to form a government in Karnataka, the BJP is focussed on the three poll- bound states — Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, where the party’s governments seem to be fighting a major wave of antiincumbency.

The party is worried over the findings of a “mood of the nation” survey conducted by a news channel that the BJP “appears to be on the downfall in both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh in terms of vote share”.

More importantly, it is in the electorally crucial Uttar Pradesh where the BJP would lose the most in the Lok Sabha polls with the survey suggesting that the SP- BSP alliance is likely to get 46 per cent ( a gain of 4 per cent) of votes while the NDA will get 35 per cent ( a loss of 8 per cent).

After it’s failure to form government in Karnataka, the BJP high command has focussed on the three poll bound states- Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, where the party seemed to be hit by a major anti- incumbency wave. The party seemed to be concerned, following results of a ‘ Mood of the Nation’ survey conducted by a news channel on Thursday. The ‘ Mood of the Nation’ survey claimed that the BJP “appears to be on the downfall in both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh in terms of vote share.” More importantly, it is electorally crucial Uttar Pradesh, which would see the BJP losing the most with the survey suggesting that SP- BSP alliance is likely to get 46 percent ( gain 4 percent) while NDA will get 35 percent ( loss of 8 percent) in the next year’s scheduled Lok Sabha poll. Gujarat could witness a surge in Congress’s popularity.

It further stated that in Madhya Pradesh, the Congress is likely to get 44 per cent vote share and the BJP 39 per cent of the votes, if elections to the 200- member assembly were to be held today. While claiming that “in Rajasthan Congress is just 5 per cent ahead of the BJP in terms of vote share,” in Bihar, “BJP would get 60 per cent of the vote share while the UPA would end up with just 34 per cent.”

Region wise, the survey has out the NDA vote share at 39 percent, UPA’s at 21 percent and others at 40 percent. The NDA is likely to win 90 out of 151 seats in the region while the UPA tally is at 25. Others parties will get 36 seats.

Also, states like Gujarat would see a surge in support for the Congress. In May 2017, NDA had led UPA by 24 percentage points. In January 2018 this lead dropped to 8 points and now it has further reduced to just 5 points, the survey states.

In Maharashtra, the NDA would continue to lead with a viteshare of 48 percent while the UPA will be at 40 and others at 21 percent if assembly elections are held in the state today. However, the BJP and Shiv Sena would have to continue its alliance In 2014, the vote share was 51 percent for

NDA.

The survey states that the NDA will continue to lead in eastern India and if Lok Sabha elections are held today, the ruling alliance will likely get 8694 out of 142 seats. UPA will get 22- 26 and others will get 26- 30 seats. In 2014, NDA had won 58 seats in this region, UPA 21 and Others 63. Though Mamata Banerjee led TMC would continue to dominate West Bengal, if elections are held today in the state, TMC will likely get 44 percent vote share, BJP just 24 percent, Left parties 17 percent and the Congress 11percent.

Rajasthan is one of the states currently ruled by the BJP where opposition Congress is likely to make a huge gain.

If assembly elections are held in the state today, Congress may get 44 percent vote share, BJP 39 percent and others 17 percent. In 2013, the BJP had 45 percent vote share, Congress 33 percent and others had secured 22 percent. After bringing back the JD( U) in the NDA fold, the survey suggests that if elections are called in Bihar today, BJP- JD( U) combine will perform exceptionally well while the Congress- RJD are likely to lose again.

◗ Mood of the nation survey predicts BJP’s vote share to decline in Gujarat, UP, and Rajasthan while it will perform better in Bihar and Maharashtra