Regional parties’ tieup is a chimera
It is too early to analyse the shape and strength of the tieup of regional parties, which is being projected to fight the NDA in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll. At present it looks a chimera or a hydra- headed monster , very difficult to name or define.
The collective desperation and frustration of the Congress and anti- BJP parties in the Opposition is understandable. The BJP, now ruling in nearly two dozen states having almost three fourths of India’s population, has emerged as predominant political force and its leader Narendra Modi is unassailable, as is seen by the results of over a dozen state elections after 2014, where the Congress has been humbled repeatedly. Regional parties like the BSP, SP and the CPI( M) also suffered stunning defeats at the hands of the BJP. This forced all these parties to put up common candidates against the BJP in Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana bypolls in UP. The experiment has rekindled hope in the anti- BJP camp that a united Opposition can make the going tough for the BJP in the 2019 general election.
But it is not that simple an arithmetic. It is easier to make adjustments at the local level as issues are localised. But in the general election it is the chemistry and atmospheric that work better. Parties have to work out seat- sharing, they have to have an agenda for governance, and also have to declare a leader who is to rule the country after the elections.
Can the Opposition present a credible alternative to the NDA and Mr Modi?
The strength of the regional parties is confined to their respective states. Different regional parties don’t complement each other. The Congress is an adversary to many regional parties — the BJD in Orissa, the CPI( M) in Kerala, the TRS in Telangana and the TDP in Andhra. Further, the Congress has lost its relevance as a national party for others to join under its tag, and it seems unlikely that regional satraps senior to Congress president Rahul Gandhi will form a common front.
Moreover, many regional parties are BJP allies. So far the NDA has functioned as a cohesive unit and with some nimble- footed strategy it can expand further, taking in the AIADMK, TRS, TDP and Jagan Mohan Reddy’s party, as also the regional parties in the Northeast. In a national election, people vote for a stable government and a dependable leader. There is no alternative to the BJP and Mr Modi for the people to choose. A ragtag tieup might work at the state level, but at national level it is a tall order. The BJP has nothing to fear as long as the charismatic appeal of the Prime Minister is intact.
The writer is a former national convenor of the BJP intellectual cell, and co- convenor of the BJP national training programme and publication department