UTTAR PRADESH HOLDS THE KEY

Congress insiders believe that with the Samajwadi Party facing internecine struggles and the BSP leader Mayawati’s diminishing electoral numbers, Congress sees great potential in Rahul- Priyanka and Jyoti rad it ya Sc india as modern, acceptable and governancecentric forces who can rescue UP from the stranglehold of caste and communal politics. The despondency with Yogi Adityanath over his inability to address agrarian distress, particularly in the sugarcane sector, and the lack of jobs is fuelling silent rage. The centralisation of power has left BJP MPs dysfunctional in their own constituencies, where the rightwing forces, the RSS- VHP- Bajrang Dal- ABVP stir the communal cauldron.

Marginal players like the Mahan Dal, Peace Party, the Rajbhars and the multiple EBC formations are waiting to be accommodated in the power matrix. This is where the Congress can cash in, offer seats to all such forces at the receiving end of the Yogi sarkar. Along with a base vote of 10%, all that the Congress needs is a potential 10% more to swing in 20 additional seats largely in East UP. The reason that the Congress will be in the reckoning in nearly 20 seats is because of complete marginalisation of OBCs, EBCs and Muslims/ Dalits under Yogi. While the Yadavs once dominated the police and administration, now it is the Thakurs who rule the roost. The Brahmins are livid at being ignored by the BJP. Similarly, the non- Yadav OBC and the non- Jatav SCs were the ones who catapulted BJP to victory in 2017. This large uncommitted section, along with Brahmins and Muslims, alienated by the Yogi sarkar are ripe for the picking. A 25% convergence of the non- Yadav OBC, non- Jatav SC, marginalised EBC and disillusioned upper castes along with Muslims in certain pockets can revive the Congress. A gain of 15 seats is on the cards.