Barring two, all exit polls off the mark again

◗ Haryana was where majority of the Exit Polls went wrong as they failed to catch the mood on the ground.

The credibility of the Exit Polls came under cloud once again with almost all barring two — TV9 Bharatvarsh and Indian Today-Axis — that had predicted a close fight and a hung assembly in Haryana. Majority of the Exit Polls had, however, had predicted a Saffron Tsunami indicating huge majority for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance where the NCP and Congress combination did not do as bad as predicted.

In Maharashtra, the ‘Poll of Exit Polls’ showed BJP-SS alliance were to bag 218 seats in the assembly of 288 while the Congress-NCP was to get 57 and others 13. In Haryana too the ‘Poll of Exit Polls’ gave BJP 66 seats in the Assembly of 90, while giving 14 to the Congress, 2 to INLD and Akali Dal alliance and 8 to others.

However, Haryana was where majority of the Exit Polls went wrong as they failed to catch the mood on the ground. India Today which announced its Exit Polls the next day kept its estimates conservative and predicted a close fight between the BJP and the Congress. It predicted 3040 seats for the Congress and 32-42 for the BJP.

The ABP-C Voter had predicted 70 seats for the BJP and eight for the Congress, while the CNNIPSOS and Times Now forecast of 75 and 71 for the BJP and 10 and 11 for the Congress respectively.

In Maharashtra, the India Today-Axis poll predicted 166-194 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena, 72-90 for the Congress-NCP and 2234 for other smaller parties and independents. In Maharashtra, the BJPShiv Sena combine is set to bag 159 seats and the Congress-NCP alliance 102 seats. The ABP-C Voter had a made a forecast of 210 seats for the BJP and 63 seats for the Congress-NCP alliance, while the Times Now gave 230 and eight for 48 for the BJP-Sena and the Congress-NCP combine.

This is not the first time that the majority of Exit Polls have failed to give correct predictions. The situation was similar to the Exit Polls of Bihar in 2015 where majority of the pollsters went wrong after they predicted huge majority for the BJP-led NDA and giving little to the then Grand Alliance of Janata Dal-U, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress and others. Today’s Chanakya, which had earned a reputation for being most accurate had to issue an apology after it went way off mark in Bihar.

In fact, the only one that had got it right in Bihar 2015 was Axis-Ad-PrintMedia that had to post its findings on website after the news channel it had tied up with refused to air.