Bihar 2020: Alliances hold the key to victory
The RJD has lost its support base. With the new leadership infamous for internal fights, it will be interesting to watch how the RJD negotiates a happy seat-sharing deal with any partner.
The recent chain of events and statements issued by leaders suggest that the political focus has shifted. Bihar is at the central point of discussions as of the moment. This has happened close on the heels of the Delhi election results.
Only a few days ago, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar announced that the Janata Dal (United) would contest the forthcoming Assembly elections in alliance with the BJP and that this alliance would sweep the elections. Mr Kumar went on to state that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would win over 200 seats. Addressing a public meeting in Vaishali in mid-January as part of the BJP’s ongoing Jan Jagran Abhiyan on the new citizenship law, home minister Amit Shah went on record saying that the NDA would contest the Bihar Assembly elections under the leadership of Mr Kumar.
The two statements clearly indicate that both the BJP and the JD(U) need each other. Any ifs and buts about their electoral success are put to rest with Ram Vilas Paswan giving sufficient hints that his Lok Janshakti Party intends to remain a part of the NDA alliance. Given the current mood of the voters, this indeed is an alliance that is extremely difficult to defeat — even if all the other political parties manage to come together.
After recent defeats in Assembly elections, the BJP has realised the importance of having a strong local leadership for state-level elections. With protests raging across the country over the Citizenship (Amendment) Act and the proposed National
Register of Citizens, the road forward for it also seems somewhat thorny. Under these circumstances, it won’t be easy for it to gain effective electoral leverage in Bihar if it decides to contest the elections alone.
With an aggressive campaign and stationing of several chief ministers and MPs in Delhi, the BJP has left no stone unturned to fight the recent Delhi elections on its own agenda, but the results tell a different story. Similarly, the JD(U) seems to be aware that going alone in the coming elections will make the party extremely vulnerable. At best, the JD(U) could muster about 19-20 per cent votes. Thus there is compulsion on both sides to stay together.
The grand alliance that was formed against the NDA in Bihar with various smaller regional parties along with the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) could hope to count on growing antiincumbency against the four-time chief minister. But that may not work this time as the RJD, the biggest party in the grand alliance, has lost ground. A significant chunk of its votes has shifted to BJP. During the 2015 Assembly elections, the RJD in alliance with the JD(U) managed to create a momentum and transfer of votes to its alliance partners, but after the splitting of the alliance
The results of the Bihar elections would have bearing on the Assembly elections to be held in summer of 2021 when Assam and West Bengal in the east and Tamil Nadu and Kerala down south go to polls which ultimately resulted in Mr Kumar forming the government with BJP, the RJD consistently lost its support base. With the new leadership infamous for internal fights, it will be interesting to watch how the RJD negotiates a happy seat-sharing deal with any partner with whomsoever it stitches up a counter-alliance.
The possibilities as to who will form the next government in Bihar also lie in how the alliances shape up in the coming months. As of now, it is an extremely favourable situation for the NDA. The Opposition parties seem a fragmented lot. A possible grand alliance without the JD(U) could only make the fight somewhat interesting, but any possibility of the JD(U) joining a “Mahagatthbandhan” on the same lines of the one in 2015 can change the political outcome completely. Mr Kumar would still need to work hard to convince his voters to vote for the Mahagatthbandan.
The smaller regional parties would play an important role. The success of the Mahagatthbandan would also depend on how Muslims vote in the coming elections. It is expected that Muslims would vote for the Mahagatthbandan in large numbers as they have always voted for any alliance opposing the BJP. The polarisation may be sharper given the ongoing antiCAA protests happening in many parts of the state. But the presence of the All India Majlis-eIttehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in Bihar politics can change this equation. One should not forget that during the 2015 Assembly elections, the AIMIM contested in six seats and polled eight per cent votes. The party has remained active in pockets having sizeable Muslim populations, especially in Seemanchal. During the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, AIMIM candidate Akhtarul Iman polled over 25 per cent votes in the Kishanganj Lok Sabha constituency and its victory in the Kishanganj Assembly seat during by-polls in October 2019 is an indication of its increased presence in this region. The local leadership of different political parties who led the anti-CAA protests might also shape the mind of the Muslim voters. Other regional parties like LJP, RLSP, HAM and JAP have a support base limited to specific caste communities, but these parties could play an important role depending on which alliance they choose to be a part of.
The results of the Bihar elections would have bearing on the Assembly elections to be held in summer of 2021. Assam and West Bengal in the east and Tamil Nadu and Kerala down south go to polls in May 2021. The stakes for the BJP are going to be very high in Assam and West Bengal —states with significant Muslim numbers. While in Assam, the BJP would defend its incumbent government, the challenge for it in West Bengal would be to snatch power from the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamul Congress. The verdict of Bihar would signal and shape the strategy of how the BJP would like to contest those elections.
Sanjay Kumar is a professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi. He is also a political analyst and a wellknown psephologist. The views expressed are personal. Neel Madhav is associated with the Lokniti Research Programme of CSDS.