Containerised exports may recover faster than imports

After a 30 per cent decline in the June quarter, containerised exports may see a V- shaped recovery, while imports may lag behind with an L- shaped recovery. Plastics and rubber, vegetables, pharmaceuticals and garments are supporting recovery in exports.

During the June quarter, containerised trade contracted by almost 30 per cent against the same quarter last year. Exports were down by over 24 per cent while imports suffered a greater shock with a fall of almost 34 per cent as a sudden demand- shock has created an unprecedented distress in the global trade. However, as the economies are opening in a staggered manner, containerised trade has started showing signs of recovery, according to Maersk.

Commodities such as plastics and rubber have been in great demand and their exports, especially to China, have seen a tremendous growth, during the June quarter.

Plastics are supported by the growth of end- user industries such as packaging, textile fibre and electronics. Tyre industry has not seen as much contraction and gives a boost to rubber exports.

Vegetable exports have also seen a rise, especially to markets in the Middle East. Vegetable exports to the UAE have more than doubled from 2019 levels.

Pharmaceutical exports are expected to grow around 10 to 12 per cent in the next couple of years.

However, containerised imports into India witnessed a steep decline across all commodities, except for chemicals which form a very small portion of overall imports.