Trade & hotels to see 21% dip in real GVA

Trade, hotels, transport and communication will see the steepest decline of 21.4 per cent in goss value added (GVA) in FY21. Except the primary sector, which includes agriculture, all the other sectors will see a decline in GVA, finds the Economic Survey.

As per the first advance estimate for FY21, the real GVA at basic prices of trade, hotels, transport and communication sectors will be around Rs 20.26 lakh crore against the provisional estimate of Rs 25.77 lakh crore in FY20—a decline of 21.4 per cent. These sectors had recorded a growth of 3.6 per cent in FY20 and 7.7 per cent in FY19.

Manufacturing might see a decline of 9.3 per cent to Rs 33.19 lakh crore in FY21 against Rs 36.59 lakh crore in the previous fiscal. Manufacturing, too, has been witnessing positive growth for the past several years, though in FY20, the growth was almost flattish at 0.7 per cent. However, in the previous two years, manufacturing was growing at 6 and 6.5 per cent.

In the case of financing, insurance, real estate and business services, the decline will be marginal at 0.8 per cent to Rs 28.91 lakh crore. In FY20, these sectors had grown by 4.6 per cent and 6.8 per cent in FY19.

Community, social and personal services, which had grown by 10 per cent in FY20, also will see a decline of 3.7 per cent.

The primary sector, which includes agriculture, fishing, mining and quarrying, is the saving grace. These sectors will grow their real GVA by 0.9 per cent to Rs 23.25 lakh crore against Rs 23.03 lakh crore in the previous fiscal. As per the provisional estimate of FY20, these sectors had grown by 3.9 per cent.

The total GVA added at basic prices will decline by 7.2 per cent against a growth of 3.9 per cent in the previous fiscal.