Common sense will see India through Covid 3.0

The world is at an inflection point of the Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic as it enters a third year of infections that have raged in waves with the Omicron variant currently dominant. It would be humanity’s great good fortune if the variant that has been causing only mild symptoms in most people is indeed the harbinger of the disease in its endemic form, reduced to an equivalent of the common flu or the commoner cold. How countries respond to the current wave might help shape the future of the planet in economic and health terms.

An extreme version of anxiety has been apparent in China, the country of origin of the virus, which has been pursuing a “zero Covid” policy it can sustain, as in shutting down an entire city for just three Omicron cases. This comes only at a grave cost to the economy. As the strictest lockdowns are imposed by an economic giant, they will have an effect on the supply side of the global economy in an interconnected world. Other countries that followed the “zero Covid” model like New Zealand, Australia and Singapore have reconciled to living with the virus. At the other end of the spectrum is the United States, the worst sufferer in terms of millions of infections as well as in hundreds of thousands of deaths. Lockdowns are not considered wise and reasonable restrictions seem to be followed by enough numbers, irrespective of the people’s ambivalent response to vaccination as the prime weapon to fight the virus. The US has managed to keep the wheels of the economy turning with their foremost epidemiological adviser pointing out that in pandemic data the number of people needing hospital care is more important than the scary overall count running into a million plus cases a day.

Across the Atlantic, Europe is in the crosshairs of a fourth wave and its response has varied from Britain’s Plan B that will not envisage lockdowns to much tighter restrictions on the continent. The scary projections of the mathematical modellers have not been allowed to hold sway in the UK where the leaders have had their way and been vindicated, too, as hospitalisations and deaths, as well as patients needing oxygen and ventilation, were seen to be way below gloomy forecasts. An index of the gap between projection and reality is a chasm between 3,000 deaths a day and just 42 as recently recorded.

There are lessons to be drawn from reactions to the Omicron-fuelled wave. The foremost is that crippling lockdowns will not save lives and will only spoil livelihoods. The gap between projection and what is actually happening in more disciplined societies may not, however, be a good guide as behaviour is a vital ingredient in the lesser intensity of human losses to Omicron. In India, states are beginning to clamp down with restrictions like night curfew, which are illogical because political rallies are allowed by day in five poll-going states.

Data will be more useful in counting people who need intensive care in hospitals. Vaccination for kids and boosters for the vulnerable besides pushing for higher numbers in double jabs, which only 65 per cent of Indians have received thus far, are the way to go as Omicron surges towards becoming the dominant strain in India, too. Less of curfews and more vigilance over people following Covid protocols and avoiding congregations for any reason is called for. Common sense more than panic could see India through a wave that should peak quickly.

The foremost is that crippling lockdowns will not save lives and will only spoil livelihoods... States are beginning to clamp down with restrictions, which are illogical because political rallies are allowed by day...