Firing off Sena’s shoulder, BJP strategy wins the day
The angular movement of Maharashtra politics that started with hard bargaining after the Assembly election in November 2019 has come full circle with rebel Shiv Sena leader and former deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde taking oath as chief minister and former chief minister and BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis becoming his deputy on Thursday. The top post in the state fell vacant on Wednesday when Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackaray resigned as chief minister after the Supreme Court dismissed the objection raised by his party to the floor test governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari had ordered when a sizeable number of Sena MLAs revolted.
The 2019 election had given a clear verdict though it did not fully match the expectations of the saffron camp, then comprising the BJP and the Sena. The BJP with its 105 seats and the Shiv Sena with 56 could have comfortably continued in power but the claim of Mr Thackeray to an arrangement by which he would be the chief minister for a term vitiated the scene. While the allies were haggling over power, Mr Fadnavis engineered a split in the rival NCP with 56 seats and staked a claim to be CM. The governor had no qualms about playing along and swore him in but it proved a costly gamble. NCP supremo Sharad Pawar cobbled together an alliance, the MVA, with the Sena and the Congress, and left the chief ministerial chair to Mr Thackeray. In the process, Mr Pawar got his party back together.
The BJP has now returned the favour much as Mr Pawar and the Congress had done earlier by breaking their erstwhile ally and anointing the rebel leader as chief minister. It would be a double whammy for the Shiv Sena and its head Mr Thackeray as it seeks to send the signal that the official party is left with little future. It also means that the job of sustaining the ministry will be more on the shoulders of Mr Shinde than on a BJP leader. Mr Shinde will now be dependent on the BJP, and not the other way, to remain in power.
From the looks of it, the BJP had never lost hope in Maharashtra. Operation Lotus, the crass undermining of electoral verdicts employed by the party in several states by engineering defection, was a difficult proposition in the state. But the BJP with power at the Centre and all the federal investigating agencies at its command can never be found wanting in power ploys. Reports suggest that about 35 MLAs of the Shiv Sena are under the scrutiny of the Central investigating agencies, including the Enforcement Directorate. One of the MLAs last year wrote to Mr Thackeray to reconcile with the BJP before it was too late, saying he was being harassed by the ED. It was only last week that a minister was grilled by the ED for hours on end. Mr Thackeray may be unwilling to reconcile but the legislators have too heavy a stake to stick with the MVA.
Three ministries in three years is a not a great idea for a state such as Maharashtra which hosts the nation’s economic engine. But then, realpolitik has its own dynamics, and democracies better learn to live with it.
Three ministries in three years is a not a great idea for a state such as Maharashtra which hosts the nation’s economic engine. But then, realpolitik has its own dynamics, and democracies better learn to live with it.