Sluggish monsoon progress results in 22% rain deficiency

New Delhi, June 15: The late arrival of south-west monsoonthisyearhasledtooverall rain deficiency of 22% from the benchmark of Long Period Average (LPA) during first fortnight of its progress, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday. However, the monsoon rains are expected to pick up pace in a couple of days, it said.

According to IMD, during June 1 to 15, the country has received 43.6 mm of rainfall as compared to normal level of 55.7 mm, an overall deficiency of 22%. However, a MeT department official told FE that as monsoon entered Kerala coast only on June 8 this year, the overall deficiency has been more.

The southern peninsula had recorded 27% excess rainfall while other parts of the country have seen deficient rains. “Here onwards, the intensity of monsoon rains would soon pick up pace as predicted by us,” the IMD official said.

“Conditions are favourable for further advance of south-west monsoon into more parts of Goa, Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada, remaining parts of north interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, remaining parts of Bay of Bengal and some parts of Odisha, Gengetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar during the next three to four days,” IMD said in the latest weather bulletin.

According to an analysis by private monsoon forecaster Skymet, out of the country's 36 sub-divisions, 5 pockets recorded excess rainfall and 11 pockets had normal rains. While 14 were deficient, 5 were scanty and 1 pocket had no rains during June 1 - 15.

“Weather conditions are indicating that first half of the next week will continue with subdued rain activity. However, fresh monsoon system coming up in Bay of Bengal will revive the monsoon current. With this rains will pick up pace again, especially over southern and central parts of the country,” Skymet said.

After two successive years of deficient monsoon (2014 and 2015), IMD earlier in the month had reiterated its April prediction by stating that south-westmonsoonwouldbe 'above normal' rainfall at 106% of the benchmark LPA, with a model error of ± 4%.

The heartening part of the IMD's forecast was that there is 96% probability of monsoon (June-September) being nor mal or excess.