Moody’s: Demand, debt are challenges

INDIA’Seconomicgrowth over the next two years will be challenged by lacklustre global demand and high leverage in some corporate sectors, rating agency Moody’s said in a report on Tuesday. Currently, Moody’s has a “Baa3” with positive outlookratingforthecountry.

“Growth will be adversely affected by high leverage of some large corporates also weighs on credit demand, while impaired assets in the banking system negatively affect credit supply,” said Marie Diron, a Moody’s senior vicepresident and manager. Despite global headwinds and domestic challenges, India’s GDP grew by 7.6% in FY16 as against 7.2% in FY15. Government officials expect the economy to grow by nearly 8% in the current fiscal, aided by a likely good monsoon and a consumption boost from the pay hike for government staff, among others.

Moody’s said lower nominal growth affects revenues, suggesting that the government would have to rein in spending to meet its deficit target. “This will leave little room for fiscal measures to support investment or offset potential negative external or domestic shocks, which continue to pose downside risks to our forecast of around 7.5% real GDP growth in the next two years,” it said.

By contrast, India’s medium-term potential will be supported by the gradual implementation of further targeted policy reforms, thereby improving the business environment, state of infrastructure and productivity growth, Moody’s said. “Although the parliament has passed some credit positive measures related to bankruptcy