Retrieve the lost turf in Nepal
The visible crack in India’s carefully-nurtured relationship with Nepal which had peaked only a few months ago with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s timely and extensive support to the country devastated by an earthquake, has a sad tale to tell.
There is perceptible anger on the streets of Kathmandu at India’s failure to welcome the new constitution of the Himalayan neighbor ostensibly because its Indian origin Madhesis who hail from Bihar are angry and feel short-changed by the new statute.
The goodwill generated by Modi’s initiative of making an official visit to Nepal promising more energy and trade, his second visit to attend a SAARC summit and the generous quake relief, has been largely neutralised. The beneficiary is our rival China which is wooing Nepal no end.
With an unofficial blockade by India of the landlocked country causing huge shortages of essential items, prices are skyrocketing and all blame for this is being heaped on India. Petrol bunks have stopped giving petrol and diesel to private vehicles with the result that the Nepalese are now looking to China for help. Latest reports say that the entry of trucks into Nepal has been resumed but much damage has been done to the relationship in the intervening period.
The Chinese, on their part, were in any case waiting to grab such an opportunity knowing that prompt supply of these would ingratiate them to the people of Nepal and distance India further from that country.
One can understand the Modi government’s disappointment that it was cold-shouldered before the new constitution was announced but international diplomacy necessitates that we approach the disappointment with cool calculation and with reference to long-term goals.
This is not to say that the Nepalese Parliament did not err in denying a fair deal to a sizeable chunk of the population—the Madhesis. But India could have handled the whole issue better. By its myopic attitude of openly favouring the Madhesis and Tharus in their agitating approach of opposing the Nepal government on the streets, India has done irreparable harm to the ethos of the IndoNepal relationship. The Madhesis are now looked upon by a growing section of people in Nepal as a people whose loyalty lies first to India and then to Nepal. Not only are the Indians looked upon with suspicion by the Nepalese leadership but the Madhesis and Tharus too are held in deep distrust.
It is no wonder then that while the Communist Party of Nepal –Unified Marxist Leninist (CPNUML) and Unified Communist Party of Nepal Maoist (UCPN-M) were often on the wrong side of India and have intensified their opposition to this country, the Nepali Congress which was consistently pro-India has also fallen in line with them and is opposing India vehemently. When patriotic feelings become synonymous with a particular stand, no one wants to be seen to be on the wrong side. Together, the three parties represent an overwhelming number of legislators in the new Assembly who favour the new constitution.
Evidently, the BJP has been wary of taking any steps that would jeopardise its chances in the Terai region in the upcoming Bihar assembly elections but while India could play the mediator between the Madhesis and the Nepalese government, in any event, national interest which requires a restoration of normalcy cannot be subordinated to party or sectional interest.
There is no time to waste before the tide against India in Nepal turns into an avalanche. On emotive issues like sovereignty, smaller countries like Nepal suffer from a deep sense of insecurity which gets played upon by vested interests. In any case, even in the best of times, India’s Big Brotherly attitude has not gone down well with the people of Nepal. It would be foolhardy for the Modi government to seek to bulldoze its own preferred version of the Nepalese constitution. The Nepalese people are perfectly entitled to frame and adopt their own constitution.
The fact that Nepal has turned to the United Nations against India’s blockade of an important trade point is ominous indeed. India can ill afford to wait for the Bihar elections to be over before it seeks to retrieve lost ground.
Two former prime ministers—Sher Bahadur Deuba and Madhav Kumar Nepal—have called for an end to what they call India’s “undeclared blockade.” Khadga Prasad Oli, who is tipped to be the new prime minister has also strongly objected to the closure of supply points to Nepal .
Barring one, the seven provinces that the new constitution has carved out run from north to south of Nepal. The Madhesis say with some justification that this would split up the Madhesi population, reducing them to a minority in most provinces. The lurking fear of the Madhesis is that they would be dominated by those from the hills. Already, demonstrations have started in the hills against India. Nepali cable operators have taken Indian television channels off air.
The Madhesi demand is that the country not be divided at all but this is unacceptable to the three major parties who are consciously working for curbing the influence of the Madhesis and thereby of India too.
The Madhesis also want representation in Parliament in proportion to their population which too is up against stiff opposition.
Indian officials deny that there was any blockade organised with their tacit support. A handful of Madhesis had been squatting on the road at the border and because of the sensitive nature of the conflict, India was wary of removing them. As a result, the queue of trucks started lengthening and consequently the Nepalese were being denied essential supplies. That truck traffic has now improved is a matter of considerable relief. Prime Minister Modi who had built up tremendous goodwill in Nepal before this crisis occurred must now build upon the resumption of traffic.